Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:12:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F6
0xf603…997e
sports · 765 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$267 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$207 · open +$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$34
Realized+$207
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses413 / 339
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions13
Markets (closed)752 / 765
History coverage16d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day119.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 13 History 752 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$82
14 days+$145
30 days+$207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 33¢ 96¢ $4 $10 +$7 (+190%)
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) New York Mets 29¢ 91¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+214%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets New York Mets 41¢ 98¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+139%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 51¢ 98¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+91%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Under 48¢ 90¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+86%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Under 50¢ 92¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+85%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) New York Mets 54¢ 98¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+81%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Toronto Blue Jays 45¢ 78¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+72%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Milwaukee Brewers 74¢ 97¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+32%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Under 47¢ 62¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+32%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Athletics 52¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Under 68¢ 73¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $11 +$13 +121%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -69%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -21%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -34%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -34%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $7 −$2 -26%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2 −$1 -34%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -89%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -47%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $5 −$2 -42%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $2 −$1 -62%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $4 −$3 -94%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $7 −$1 -15%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $2 $0 -16%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 -20%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 -19%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2 −$1 -34%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $2 −$1 -28%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $4 −$2 -48%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) Jun 14 $4 −$1 -38%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +114%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +52%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $6 +$6 +95%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 $0 -11%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 17.5 Jun 14 $2 −$1 -22%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 14 $4 $0 +12%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +36%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5 Jun 14 $4 +$3 +80%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 14 $11 −$1 -13%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $4 +$8 +209%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$1 -41%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $5 −$1 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 90% +$195
crypto 10% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 SELL Over 14¢ $0 8m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 61¢ $1 8m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 54¢ $1 9m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 45¢ $1 9m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 51¢ $1 9m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 44¢ $2 9m
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 10¢ $0 10m
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5) SELL Minnesota Twins 0¢ $0 11m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 SELL Over 29¢ $1 11m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 24¢ $1 11m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 SELL Over 14¢ $1 12m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 4¢ $0 12m
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 8¢ $0 49m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Cincinnati Reds 46¢ $2 50m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 40¢ $2 51m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1 52m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 52¢ $1 52m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5 SELL Over 47¢ $2 53m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 43¢ $2 53m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets SELL Atlanta Braves 3¢ $0 53m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 29¢ $1 54m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 61¢ $1 54m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 68¢ $1 1h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) BUY Miami Marlins 48¢ $1 1h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) BUY Miami Marlins 42¢ $1 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 53¢ $4 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 4¢ $0 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 16¢ $1 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 65¢ $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Baltimore Orioles 33¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 391 +0.2% -9.4% 52% 41% -3.5%
≤30d 752 +2.7% -7.1% 55% 45% -2.1%
≤90d 752 +2.7% -7.1% 55% 45% -2.1%
all 752 +2.7% -7.1% 55% 45% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover119.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 45% -2.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 38% -11.4%
15% -24.1% 28% -20.0%
20% -31.5% 23% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.50 · official $34.50 (match) · 2592 history records