Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:23:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F6 0xf606…1a1b crypto 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 614d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate73%11W / 4L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$628per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 98% +$11
crypto 1% $0
sports 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 15 +9.0% -1.3% 73% 20% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 20% -9.4%
10% -10.8% 20% -18.1%
15% -19.4% 20% -26.0%
20% -27.3% 20% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses11 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage614d
Avg bet$628
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 13? Jun 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 4? Jun 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on March 11? Apr 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 1? Mar 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 5? Feb 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on January 30? Feb 05 $14 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of December 15 above $430? Feb 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Sep 24 $2 $0 +0%
Trail Blazers vs. Hornets Jan 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 22 $9,171 −$2 -0%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Nov 11 $9 −$3 -30%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 11 $12 +$8 +63%
World Series: Yankees vs. Dodgers Game 4 Nov 05 $10 +$10 +100%
Will SK win the most seats in the 2024 Saskatchewan general election? Nov 05 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $689 −$5 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 75d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on March 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 99d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 1? BUY No 100¢ $10 109d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 5? BUY No 100¢ $25 132d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on January 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $14 140d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of December 15 above $430? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 181d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $2 358d
Trail Blazers vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 50¢ $9 511d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 516d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 94¢ $648 564d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY Yes 94¢ $648 564d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 94¢ $648 564d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY Yes 94¢ $648 564d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 94¢ $30 564d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 94¢ $10 564d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 94¢ $10 564d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 94¢ $11 564d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 94¢ $11 564d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 94¢ $11 564d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 94¢ $11 564d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 94¢ $10 564d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 94¢ $11 564d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 94¢ $10 564d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 94¢ $11 564d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 94¢ $229 564d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 94¢ $10 564d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 94¢ $57 564d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 94¢ $215 564d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.86 · official $24.86 (match) · 122 history records