Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:08:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F6
0xf609…e68b
other · 762 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$976 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$342 · open +$79
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,445
Realized+$342
Unrealized+$79
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses256 / 246
Est. fees paid−$109
Open positions464
Markets (closed)502 / 762
History coverage15d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day200.1
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit46%
Chart Positions 464 History 502 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$206
7 days−$139
14 days+$298
30 days+$342
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? No 88¢ 92¢ $189 $198 +$9 (+5%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 74¢ $199 $197 −$3 (-1%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 86¢ $187 $186 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 81¢ 89¢ $156 $171 +$15 (+9%)
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? No 94¢ 96¢ $131 $134 +$3 (+2%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 86¢ $129 $129 −$0 (-0%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Under 47¢ 54¢ $110 $126 +$16 (+15%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? No 94¢ 92¢ $118 $117 −$2 (-1%)
Will Spain win the World Cup? No 81¢ 80¢ $105 $105 −$1 (-1%)
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 99¢ $49 $98 +$48 (+98%)
Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $5M before 2027? No 96¢ 94¢ $97 $95 −$2 (-2%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 Over 48¢ 64¢ $67 $88 +$21 (+32%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 50¢ 46¢ $79 $74 −$5 (-6%)
Will Uruguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 87¢ 88¢ $72 $73 +$1 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the World Cup? No 93¢ 92¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-1%)
Hurupay FDV above $40M one day after launch? No 89¢ 96¢ $60 $64 +$4 (+7%)
Will Senegal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 69¢ 72¢ $59 $61 +$2 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the World Cup? No 89¢ 91¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+2%)
Will Colombia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 89¢ 88¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Will Qatar be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 21¢ 20¢ $56 $55 −$1 (-2%)
Will Switzerland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 87¢ 88¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Over 49¢ 40¢ $63 $52 −$11 (-17%)
3Jane FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 70¢ 78¢ $43 $48 +$5 (+11%)
Will New Zealand be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? No 90¢ 93¢ $46 $47 +$2 (+3%)
Over $30M committed to the ALIGN public sale? No 95¢ 99¢ $43 $45 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 13 $75 +$1 +2%
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $14 +$1 +5%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 171.5 Jun 13 $4 −$2 -39%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $9 −$1 -8%
Will Austria be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 13 $42 +$2 +5%
Will Austria reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $8 −$2 -20%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +37%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $7 $0 -1%
Will Scotland reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4 $0 -5%
Will Scotland be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 13 $36 +$1 +2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $4 +$1 +20%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $87 −$74 -85%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $190 +$92 +48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $34 +$24 +71%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $188 +$7 +4%
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +22%
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027? Jun 13 $3 $0 -7%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $2 $0 -20%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $3 +$1 +33%
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 13 $8 $0 -5%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -21%
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +11%
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4 $0 -11%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 -8%
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +10%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 157.5 Jun 13 $33 +$4 +13%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -11%
1H Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 13 $6 −$2 -35%
1H Spread: Knicks (-11.5) Jun 13 $9 +$3 +36%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -21%
Will Sweden be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Jun 13 $27 +$1 +3%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $14 +$2 +11%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $3 +$3 +106%
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $49 −$4 -9%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +8%
Will USA be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 13 $58 +$2 +4%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 158.5 Jun 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will Czechia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 13 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 13 $46 −$2 -4%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 13 $26 −$3 -11%
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the Wo Jun 13 $72 −$5 -7%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 13 $26 +$4 +17%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 $0 -3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $155 +$5 +3%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 12 $7 $0 -7%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) Jun 12 $19 +$2 +11%
Will Portugal win the World Cup? Jun 12 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3 $0 -11%
Will Sweden be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 12 $44 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 44% +$284
politics 32% −$47
sports 16% +$63
tech 3% +$31
world 1% +$14
crypto 1% +$53
economics 1% +$4
finance 1% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $58 2m
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 9¢ $6 2m
Will Haiti be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 11¢ $5 3m
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $35 3m
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $136 8m
Will Haiti be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 11¢ $18 8m
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $113 8m
Will Qatar be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 21¢ $32 8m
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $88 13m
Will Qatar be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 21¢ $25 13m
Will Canada be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $10 15m
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 20¢ $2 15m
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 171.5 SELL Under 26¢ $3 47m
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 171.5 BUY Under 42¢ $4 52m
Will Switzerland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $53 1h
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 7¢ $5 1h
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 16¢ $3 1h
Will Canada be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL No 83¢ $17 1h
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 16¢ $6 1h
Will Canada be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL No 83¢ $33 1h
Will Haiti be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 11¢ $2 1h
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $17 1h
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 16¢ $3 1h
Will Canada be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL No 83¢ $17 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 1h
Will Germany win the World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $151 1h
Will New Zealand be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $51 1h
Will New Zealand reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Metamask FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 69¢ $14 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 268 -5.0% -14.0% 46% 29% -11.3%
≤30d 502 +4.8% -5.1% 51% 36% -6.9%
≤90d 502 +4.8% -5.1% 51% 36% -6.9%
all 502 +4.8% -5.1% 51% 36% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover200.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.1% 36% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -14.2% 26% -15.8%
15% -22.5% 18% -24.0%
20% -30.1% 13% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,445.11 · official $4,379.65 · 3500 history records