Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:03:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf60b…ff5f sports 477 markets active 2h ago coverage 201d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$753 (-4%) realized −$752 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate55%260W / 215L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$89
14 days+$159
30 days+$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$828
crypto 32% −$1,011
other 12% −$422
world 3% −$52
politics 1% −$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.9% -10.3% 64% 57% -3.3%
≤30d 39 +2.3% -7.4% 72% 64% -1.7%
≤90d 101 -9.1% -17.7% 61% 44% -15.9%
all 475 -5.2% -14.2% 55% 44% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 44% -13.1%
10% -22.4% 35% -21.4%
15% -29.9% 28% -29.0%
20% -36.8% 21% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$29 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

201d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized−$752
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses260 / 215
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)475 / 477
History coverage201d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 475 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 74¢ $122 $121 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $83 +$40 +48%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $52 +$18 +34%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $29 +$13 +44%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $73 −$11 -15%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Bosnia-Herzegovi Jun 24 $49 +$15 +30%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $50 −$2 -3%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $61 −$16 -26%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 23 $20 +$32 +158%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $39 +$17 +44%
João Félix: 1+ goals Jun 23 $49 +$17 +35%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $30 +$3 +9%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 $0 -2%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $31 +$10 +31%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $29 +$11 +38%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 22 $64 +$16 +24%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 22 $50 +$11 +23%
Nico Williams: 1+ goals Jun 21 $25 +$8 +31%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $94 +$11 +11%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $80 +$14 +17%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Auckland FC (-2.5) Jun 20 $69 −$69 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $66 +$14 +21%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $107 +$9 +8%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $49 +$8 +16%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $73 +$18 +24%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $61 +$11 +18%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $54 +$8 +14%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $44 +$10 +23%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $37 +$6 +17%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $35 +$3 +7%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 +$5 +17%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$4 +17%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $22 +$3 +14%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 12 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $22 −$10 -47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? May 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13? May 14 $34 −$18 -52%
Spread: Valencia CF (-2.5) May 14 $65 +$5 +7%
Spread: Getafe CF (-2.5) May 14 $61 +$3 +5%
Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-2.5) May 13 $57 +$4 +7%
CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5 May 12 $72 +$4 +5%
Spread: CA Osasuna (-2.5) May 12 $68 +$3 +5%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Elche CF: O/U 4.5 May 12 $80 −$11 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12? May 12 $17 +$20 +118%
Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-2.5) May 11 $59 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11? May 11 $28 +$6 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $123 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $83 16h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 SELL 99¢ $70 18h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 SELL 84¢ $42 18h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY 58¢ $29 26h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY 73¢ $52 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 64¢ $62 41h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 41h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 79¢ $62 42h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Bosnia-Herzegovi SELL 99¢ $64 42h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 72¢ $49 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Bosnia-Herzegovi BUY 75¢ $49 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $50 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY 72¢ $65 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 50¢ $45 2d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 38¢ $20 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $39 2d
João Félix: 1+ goals SELL No 100¢ $67 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 88¢ $33 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 69¢ $5 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 83¢ $25 2d
João Félix: 1+ goals BUY No 72¢ $5 3d
João Félix: 1+ goals BUY No 72¢ $15 3d
João Félix: 1+ goals BUY No 74¢ $29 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 17¢ $1 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 82¢ $4 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $61 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $31 3d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $40 3d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 71¢ $29 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.19 · official $121.19 (match) · 1332 history records