Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:56:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf60e…5d58 crypto 235 markets active 1h ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$674 (+4%) realized +$674 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%91W / 144L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$176
7 days−$176
14 days−$198
30 days−$338
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% +$1,280
finance 33% −$492
tech 5% +$129
other 3% −$436
politics 0% −$70
sports 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -54.5% -58.9% 17% 17% -50.9%
≤30d 37 -45.8% -50.9% 27% 27% -44.5%
≤90d 90 -36.5% -42.6% 30% 28% -43.1%
all 235 -17.7% -25.5% 39% 37% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 37% -7.2%
10% -32.6% 35% -16.1%
15% -39.1% 32% -24.2%
20% -45.1% 29% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$46 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$674
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses91 / 144
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)235 / 235
History coverage203d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 235 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 30 $39 −$37 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 30 $9 −$8 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 30 $99 −$94 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 30 $28 −$28 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 30 $57 +$42 +75%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 30 $20 −$19 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 30 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 7PM ET Jun 29 $108 −$3 -3%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 29 $2 +$4 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 05 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 05 $85 −$71 -83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 05 $20 +$16 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 05 $72 +$39 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3PM ET Jun 05 $50 +$22 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 05 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 05 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 05 $8 +$5 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$12 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$7 +147%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 05 $14 +$12 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 05 $15 +$7 +47%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 27? Jun 05 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 3? Jun 05 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in May? May 21 $36 −$36 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 27 $6 +$4 +65%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 27? Apr 27 $15 −$9 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 27 $1 +$2 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 27 $4 +$6 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Apr 27 $11 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Apr 27 $6 −$6 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $39 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $9 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $99 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $99 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $57 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $20 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $28 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 7PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $13 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 7PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 7PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $86 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 7PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $108 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $12 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $9 25h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $19 9d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 14d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 1¢ $6 15d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 32¢ $11 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $14 24d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $14 24d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $27 24d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $9 24d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 24d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $58 24d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $20 24d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 644 history records