Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:40:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
F6 0xf610…6778 politics 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 250d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$359now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% $0
other 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 4 +0.2% -9.3% 25% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$359
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage250d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $199 $198 −$0 (-0%)
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $159 $159 −$0 (-0%)
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $209 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 19 $30 $0 -0%
Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025? Dec 19 $19 $0 +2%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 15 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $358.53 · official $358.54 (match) · 15 history records