Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:26:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf614…229b crypto 154 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$100 (-1%) realized −$100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%64W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$190
14 days−$190
30 days−$289
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$313
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -28.3% -35.2% 39% 39% -41.8%
≤30d 151 -21.2% -28.7% 42% 42% -13.5%
≤90d 154 -21.4% -28.9% 42% 42% -13.8%
all 154 -21.4% -28.9% 42% 42% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 42% -13.8%
10% -35.7% 41% -22.1%
15% -41.9% 40% -29.6%
20% -47.6% 39% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$34 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses64 / 90
Open positions0
Markets (closed)154 / 154
History coverage30d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 154 Trades
no open positions (82 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $54 −$52 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 20 $54 +$48 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $7 +$5 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $28 +$32 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$6 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $12 +$11 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$8 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$14 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $88 −$85 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $44 −$42 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$11 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $22 +$19 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 02 $48 −$47 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 02 $259 −$250 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 02 $95 −$91 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 02 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 02 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 02 $21 +$22 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 02 $20 +$16 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 01 $19 +$17 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 01 $41 +$44 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 01 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 01 $19 +$12 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 01 $207 +$165 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 01 $82 −$79 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 01 $40 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 01 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 31 $41 +$56 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 31 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 31 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 31 $15 +$12 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $54 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $54 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $12 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $28 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $14 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $6 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $12 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $13 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $11 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $11 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $88 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $44 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $22 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 243 history records