Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F6 0xf617…a502 other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$22 (-26%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +99% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +80% what you keep after slip
Net edge+80%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+80.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +98.9% +80.0% 40% 40% -18.8%
≤30d 5 +98.9% +80.0% 40% 40% -18.8%
≤90d 5 +98.9% +80.0% 40% 40% -18.8%
all 5 +98.9% +80.0% 40% 40% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +80.0% 40% -18.8%
10% +62.7% 40% -26.5%
15% +47.0% 40% -33.6%
20% +32.6% 40% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +99% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage5d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$15 +712%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 7m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 4h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $15 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.56 · official $44.56 (match) · 11 history records