Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:59:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf618…594e sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 759d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$76 (-6%) realized −$74 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$77
14 days−$77
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% +$1
sports 35% +$90
other 23% −$132
world 3% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -19.7% -27.4% 41% 35% -17.3%
≤30d 17 -19.7% -27.4% 41% 35% -17.3%
≤90d 17 -19.7% -27.4% 41% 35% -17.3%
all 18 -18.7% -26.4% 39% 33% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 33% -15.8%
10% -33.5% 33% -23.8%
15% -39.9% 33% -31.2%
20% -45.8% 28% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$33 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

759d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized−$74
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)18 / 23
History coverage759d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Ecuador 68¢ 68¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 60¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 36¢ 36¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $40 +$27 +67%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $41 +$67 +165%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 +$46 +114%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 +$50 +124%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 +$29 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $41 +$59 +146%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $274 +$4 +1%
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? May 22 $258 −$3 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 36¢ $20 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 68¢ $40 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $40 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $40 47h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $41 47h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $41 47h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $41 47h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $41 47h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 28¢ $20 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $40 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $41 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $41 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 44¢ $41 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $40 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 5d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $41 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 5d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 720d
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? SELL Yes 89¢ $255 759d
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? BUY Yes 90¢ $258 759d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 54¢ $258 759d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 55¢ $263 759d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.50 · official $178.50 (match) · 34 history records