Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:29:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf61a…5943 sports 479 markets active 0h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,653 (-5%) realized −$8,653 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate45%214W / 264L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$338per market
Trades / day28.3pace
Fees−$3,074est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,707
7 days+$278
14 days−$2,273
30 days−$5,497
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$7,356
other 10% +$1,195
crypto 9% −$2,753
weather 0% −$22
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -6.7% -15.5% 63% 35% -9.2%
≤30d 134 -16.4% -24.4% 50% 34% -13.5%
≤90d 266 -16.7% -24.7% 44% 33% -14.5%
all 478 -14.1% -22.3% 45% 33% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.3% 33% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -29.8% 24% -22.7%
15% -36.5% 17% -30.2%
20% -42.8% 13% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$164 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8,653
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses214 / 264
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$3,074
Open positions0
Markets (closed)478 / 479
History coverage104d
Avg bet$338
Trades / day28.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 478 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $2,124 −$2,059 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $4,997 +$2,051 +41%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $1,337 +$912 +68%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $9,310 −$6,186 -66%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $2,216 +$214 +10%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $270 −$226 -84%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $923 +$92 +10%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $387 +$275 +71%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $9,721 +$417 +4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $303 +$101 +33%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $56 −$42 -76%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $687 −$687 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $1,422 +$1,894 +133%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $1,226 +$648 +53%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $623 +$489 +78%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $453 +$42 +9%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4,888 +$362 +7%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $201 −$201 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $2,806 +$1,300 +46%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $880 −$880 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $2,161 +$945 +44%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $3,758 +$75 +2%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $524 +$23 +4%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $88 +$4 +4%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $29 +$86 +300%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $739 +$329 +45%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $1,411 +$305 +22%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $350 +$50 +14%
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou Jun 16 $2,125 +$175 +8%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $709 +$56 +8%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 +$3 +8%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2,292 +$63 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2,751 +$801 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $2,211 +$518 +23%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $2,515 −$275 -11%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $6,470 +$349 +5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $6,658 −$3,342 -50%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $140 −$130 -93%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5,117 +$512 +10%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $4,211 +$895 +21%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $458 +$910 +198%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 63¢ $14 8m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 29¢ $3 32m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 44¢ $5 43m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 63¢ $0 49m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 55¢ $134 50m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 55¢ $200 50m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 55¢ $2,259 50m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 55¢ $20 50m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 55¢ $60 50m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 55¢ $962 50m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 55¢ $19 50m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 55¢ $4 50m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 55¢ $1 50m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 55¢ $193 50m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 55¢ $2 50m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 55¢ $2 50m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 55¢ $65 50m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 55¢ $5 50m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 55¢ $636 50m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 55¢ $50 50m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 55¢ $1,106 50m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 55¢ $15 50m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 55¢ $25 50m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 55¢ $20 50m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 55¢ $14 50m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 55¢ $9 50m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 55¢ $0 50m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 55¢ $4 50m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 55¢ $28 50m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 55¢ $57 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3219 history records