Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:50:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf61c…d335 other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$8 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip
Net edge+37%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate43%16W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$3
other 28% −$1
politics 24% +$1
crypto 7% $0
sports 6% −$16
culture 1% $0
tech 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+37.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 +2.0% -7.8% 25% 0% -7.8%
≤90d 8 +2.0% -7.8% 25% 0% -7.8%
all 37 +51.5% +37.0% 43% 8% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.0% 8% -10.8%
10% +23.9% 3% -19.3%
15% +11.9% 3% -27.1%
20% +1.0% 3% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +51% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +107% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses16 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage473d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 57¢ 56¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-3%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $38 +$3 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $36 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $15 +$1 +9%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jun 26 $5 −$1 -17%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 25 $26 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 24 $6 $0 +1%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +37%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
Will Javier Milei be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 06 $30 +$1 +5%
Will Jalen Brunson Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 16 $4 $0 -2%
Will AppLovin buy TikTok? May 16 $0 $0 +20%
Will Alpine be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? May 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will PRO hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $3 −$1 -33%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the San Francisco 49ers? May 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 12 $32 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 10 $30 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will Cavaliers vs. Nuggets be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 08 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine lowers conscription age before May 9? May 07 $32 $0 +0%
Islanders vs. Rangers Mar 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $37 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $37 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $1 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $36 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $6 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 21h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 28h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $15 30h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $22 30h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $18 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $17 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $32 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $3 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 61¢ $41 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 57¢ $20 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 57¢ $18 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 66¢ $34 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 66¢ $23 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 66¢ $11 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $35 26d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $35 26d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 26d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 26d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $7 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $9 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.54 · official $36.54 (match) · 120 history records