Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:11:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F6 0xf61d…cadd sports 271 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,026 (+10%) realized +$1,016 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%111W / 148L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$130est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$957now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$103
14 days−$129
30 days+$256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$879
other 15% −$28
crypto 4% +$56
tech 1% −$37
world 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -13.5% -21.8% 27% 27% -32.0%
≤30d 74 -9.5% -18.2% 38% 38% -2.0%
≤90d 250 -1.7% -11.0% 42% 41% -0.6%
all 259 +0.0% -9.5% 43% 41% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 41% -0.6%
10% -18.2% 38% -10.1%
15% -26.1% 33% -18.8%
20% -33.3% 29% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$20 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$957
Realized+$1,016
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses111 / 148
Est. fees paid−$130
Open positions12
Markets (closed)259 / 271
History coverage109d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $192 $257 +$65 (+34%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $96 $118 +$22 (+23%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $96 $105 +$9 (+10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $96 $83 −$13 (-14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $97 $81 −$16 (-16%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $110 $80 −$30 (-28%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $96 $74 −$22 (-23%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 123 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$5 -48%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 14 $100 −$37 -36%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$19 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $40 +$33 +82%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $43 −$37 -87%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$55 +273%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +95%
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Jun 12 $50 −$15 -30%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$30 +300%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 +$11 +112%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 08 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $100 −$18 -18%
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Kira Pavlova Jun 02 $50 −$49 -97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $20 +$23 +116%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $20 −$20 -98%
Chisinau: Cezar Cretu vs Stefanos Sakellaridis May 31 $50 −$49 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs May 31 $20 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs May 31 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $300 +$375 +125%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $100 +$60 +60%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Camila Osorio May 30 $50 −$49 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Oleksandra Oliynykova May 30 $50 −$49 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Maja Chwalinska May 30 $50 −$49 -98%
Centurion: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Giles Hussey May 30 $50 −$49 -98%
FC Ōsaka vs. Reilac Shiga: O/U 1.5 May 30 $20 +$3 +15%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 30 $17 −$16 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims) May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, P May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $20 −$19 -97%
ITF Luan: Yan Cheng Chen vs Shintaro Imai May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong May 29 $20 +$31 +156%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 29 $50 +$18 +36%
Roland Garros WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Yulia Starodubtseva May 29 $50 +$13 +26%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik May 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Centurion: Orel Kimhi vs Giles Hussey May 29 $100 +$69 +69%
Centurion: Semen Pankin vs Eliakim Coulibaly May 29 $50 −$49 -98%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries May 29 $50 +$52 +105%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $50 +$35 +70%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva May 28 $5 +$43 +864%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $120 +$102 +84%
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Claire Liu May 28 $20 +$35 +176%
Roland Garros ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Adam Walton May 28 $50 +$42 +84%
Roland Garros ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jaime Faria May 28 $100 +$51 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 13h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $5 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 2d
OpenAI IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $63 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $6 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 3d
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? SELL Yes 14¢ $35 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 64¢ $19 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $20 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 30¢ $40 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks $10 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $20 5d
OpenAI IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 76¢ $100 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 6d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $10 10d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $100 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $956.76 · official $957.96 (match) · 541 history records