Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:39:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F6 0xf626…8a12 sports 517 markets active 2h ago coverage 380d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9,096 (-9%) realized −$9,090 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate63%321W / 185L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$3
14 days+$66
30 days+$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 24% −$4,665
other 22% −$442
world 16% −$754
politics 14% +$1,412
crypto 11% −$6,305
culture 7% +$351
economics 2% +$767
tech 2% +$464
finance 0% +$26
weather 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -10.8% -19.3% 50% 20% -10.3%
≤30d 68 -2.0% -11.3% 60% 46% -4.5%
≤90d 233 +7.3% -2.9% 60% 40% -9.9%
all 506 +3.7% -6.2% 63% 40% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 40% -17.5%
10% -15.1% 24% -25.4%
15% -23.3% 16% -32.6%
20% -30.9% 10% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$119 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

380d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$9,090
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses321 / 185
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions10
Markets (closed)506 / 517
History coverage380d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 506 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+61%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-61%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 25 $30 +$4 +13%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 25 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $190 $0 +0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $14 −$1 -9%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 22 $5 −$3 -64%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? Jun 22 $10 −$4 -37%
Kristi Noem divorce by August 31? Jun 22 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $26 −$6 -24%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 22 $15 +$1 +5%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $31 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $35 +$3 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $110 +$15 +14%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $71 +$8 +11%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 15 $46 +$16 +36%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $50 +$6 +12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $25 +$3 +12%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $140 +$10 +7%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $30 +$7 +25%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $25 +$5 +20%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $50 +$4 +7%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $15 +$2 +14%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 −$3 -27%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $15 −$11 -73%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 11 $55 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $30 +$11 +37%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $235 +$17 +7%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $15 +$3 +22%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $15 +$8 +50%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $37 +$8 +22%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 +$8 +165%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $30 +$3 +8%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $30 −$11 -37%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $15 +$9 +62%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $25 −$24 -95%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $15 +$5 +36%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $60 +$9 +15%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $5 −$4 -71%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $15 +$12 +76%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $15 −$6 -38%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $10 −$8 -83%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $10 +$6 +62%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $20 +$9 +45%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $15 +$7 +44%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $20 +$7 +35%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 04 $50 +$9 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $34 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 57¢ $57 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 50¢ $50 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $190 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 2d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 3¢ $12 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 3d
Kristi Noem divorce by August 31? SELL No 80¢ $18 3d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 24¢ $19 3d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL No 35¢ $16 3d
Kristi Noem divorce by August 31? BUY No 88¢ $20 4d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $32 5d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 8d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 91¢ $35 8d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 8d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 8d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 8d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 13¢ $5 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL 79¢ $7 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 56¢ $5 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $125 9d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 99¢ $79 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.39 · official $10.39 (match) · 1287 history records