Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:50:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F6 0xf62b…07c5 crypto 693 markets active 0h ago coverage 600d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%311W / 390L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$42
14 days−$42
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$27
weather 16% −$76
other 7% −$13
politics 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -41.6% -47.2% 33% 33% -13.8%
≤30d 117 -4.6% -13.7% 58% 38% -13.8%
≤90d 486 -18.5% -26.3% 42% 36% -11.3%
all 701 -16.2% -24.2% 44% 40% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 40% -11.9%
10% -31.4% 29% -20.3%
15% -38.1% 17% -28.0%
20% -44.1% 12% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

600d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses311 / 390
Open positions1
Markets (closed)701 / 693
History coverage600d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 701 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 79¢ 100¢ $50 $62 +$13 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 2? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C or below on June 3? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 2? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 2? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on June 2? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 3? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 3? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on June 3? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 3? Jun 29 $0 +$2 +1920%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 29 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 29 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 29 $50 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 29 $50 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 29 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 29 $50 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 29 $50 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 28 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 28 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 28 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$5 +273%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$5 +274%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $50 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $51 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.46 · official $53.04 · 2104 history records