Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf62d…9932 crypto 189 markets active 7d ago coverage 169d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 169d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$537 (-8%) realized −$537 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate39%74W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day20.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$17
14 days−$28
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$540
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -28.0% -34.9% 29% 14% -21.9%
≤30d 19 -27.8% -34.7% 21% 11% -25.4%
≤90d 44 -12.9% -21.2% 30% 16% -16.3%
all 189 -8.9% -17.6% 39% 17% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 17% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 12% -25.1%
15% -32.6% 9% -32.3%
20% -39.2% 5% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$537
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses74 / 115
Open positions0
Markets (closed)189 / 189
History coverage169d ⚠
Avg bet$34
Trades / day20.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 189 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $14 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $13 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $38 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $38 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$4 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$6 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 22 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Apr 22 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Apr 22 $51 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 22 $136 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 22 $101 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 22 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Apr 22 $57 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Apr 22 $57 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 07 $1 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 07 $18 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Apr 07 $10 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 07 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 07 $28 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 07 $15 −$4 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Apr 07 $11 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 07 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Apr 07 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 07 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 07 $1 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Apr 07 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Apr 07 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Apr 07 $12 −$5 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Apr 07 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 07 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Mar 03 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Mar 02 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 02 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Mar 02 $142 −$7 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 02 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 02 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records