Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:42:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F6 0xf638…2c2e other 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+0%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate10%10W / 94L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$3
politics 20% −$3
economics 9% −$1
sports 5% +$32
culture 3% −$1
world 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 104 +5.0% -5.0% 10% 8% -9.4%
all 104 +5.0% -5.0% 10% 8% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 8% -9.4%
10% -14.1% 8% -18.0%
15% -22.4% 6% -25.9%
20% -30.0% 6% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$0 · ×15.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses10 / 94
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)104 / 105
History coverage90d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $76 $76 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $16 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $259 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $91 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $450 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $24 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? Jun 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $196 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $17 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $22 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $214 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $116 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $109 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $344 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 15 $110 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 14 $115 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 14 $241 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $231 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 10 $107 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $108 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $111 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $118 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $226 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $236 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 03 $221 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $115 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $121 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $244 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $110 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $115 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 28 $116 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $111 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $121 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? Apr 24 $110 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $233 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $195 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 18 $252 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $121 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $115 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $112 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $354 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 15 $195 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $115 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $113 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $111 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $77 23h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 3d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 5d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 7d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 8d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $15 10d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $15 10d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $14 12d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $15 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $15 13d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 14d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 14d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $17 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $17 15d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 16d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 16d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $17 17d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $17 17d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 22d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 23d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $22 23d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 24d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $45 28d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $114 28d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $115 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.41 · official $76.41 (match) · 321 history records