Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:50:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf639…2608 crypto 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$704 (-10%) realized −$721 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate31%10W / 22L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$522
14 days−$523
30 days−$706
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% +$4
other 36% −$2
sports 12% −$689
world 7% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-42.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -50.9% -55.6% 24% 19% -36.9%
≤30d 32 -36.5% -42.6% 31% 12% -18.4%
≤90d 32 -36.5% -42.6% 31% 12% -18.4%
all 32 -36.5% -42.6% 31% 12% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.6% 12% -18.4%
10% -48.1% 9% -26.2%
15% -53.1% 9% -33.4%
20% -57.7% 6% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -19% → late -54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$36 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$721
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses10 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage24d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Under 66¢ 100¢ $33 $50 +$17 (+51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $12 −$12 -98%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $21 +$7 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $8 +$17 +216%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $12 +$8 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $553 −$545 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $26 +$4 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $320 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $460 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $320 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $967 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $470 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $449 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $188 −$185 -98%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $486 −$1 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $560 $0 +0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $531 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $431 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $386 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $520 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $465 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $33 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $12 18h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $21 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 24h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 31¢ $8 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $12 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $553 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 85¢ $26 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 4d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $320 4d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $320 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $460 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $320 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $320 8d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $481 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.88 · official $49.88 (match) · 69 history records