Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:20:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf63a…eec2 sports 780 markets active 0h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$739 (+5%) realized +$491 · open +$248
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate66%506W / 263L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,034now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$0
14 days+$147
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$731
crypto 28% −$249
other 14% +$103
world 4% +$81
finance 2% −$102
politics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +4.7% -5.3% 77% 27% -9.6%
≤30d 129 -3.1% -12.3% 72% 25% -10.8%
≤90d 747 +0.3% -9.2% 67% 33% -4.7%
all 769 -0.6% -10.0% 66% 33% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 33% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 28% -16.2%
15% -26.5% 24% -24.3%
20% -33.7% 20% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$1,034
Realized+$491
Unrealized+$248
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses506 / 263
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions11
Markets (closed)769 / 780
History coverage93d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 769 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ $140 $326 +$186 (+133%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 54¢ 99¢ $83 $154 +$71 (+86%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $91 $82 −$9 (-10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $42 $47 +$5 (+13%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 35¢ 91¢ $15 $38 +$24 (+159%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 59¢ 98¢ $20 $33 +$13 (+67%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? No 76¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-88%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 25¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $9 +$3 +36%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $8 $0 +6%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $10 +$8 +79%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +2%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 26 $5 $0 +8%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 26 $5 +$2 +38%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY Jun 26 $5 $0 +7%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 26 $5 $0 +5%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 $0 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $36 +$56 +154%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 $0 -2%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +4%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $61 −$52 -85%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $101 +$19 +19%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $20 +$1 +4%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $60 +$16 +26%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $40 −$6 -15%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$3 +17%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $15 +$1 +4%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $5 $0 +4%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$30 +291%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $40 +$3 +8%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $10 +$12 +114%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$6 +55%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $15 −$1 -5%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $153 +$4 +3%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $15 +$1 +6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $25 +$1 +6%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $60 +$36 +61%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 −$2 -4%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $20 +$10 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 15m
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 15m
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 15m
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 16m
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 16m
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 16m
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 16m
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 16m
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 1h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 1h
No one announced as next James Bond? SELL Yes 98¢ $31 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 73¢ $9 31h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 96¢ $3 36h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 93¢ $5 36h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 2d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 92¢ $5 2d
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY BUY DK 93¢ $5 2d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY DN SOOPers 72¢ $5 2d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 95¢ $5 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 96¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,033.67 · official $1,025.67 (match) · 3393 history records