Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:16:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F6 0xf63a…02fc crypto 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 327d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$611 (-7%) realized −$610 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate58%19W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$272per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 327d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$215
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +0.7% -8.9% 57% 50% +2.8%
≤30d 14 +0.7% -8.9% 57% 50% +2.8%
≤90d 14 +0.7% -8.9% 57% 50% +2.8%
all 33 -10.9% -19.4% 58% 45% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 45% -10.3%
10% -27.1% 36% -18.9%
15% -34.1% 24% -26.7%
20% -40.6% 12% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$165 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

327d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized−$610
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses19 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage327d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? No 89¢ 88¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $1,119 +$484 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $548 +$829 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 29 $102 −$38 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 29 $508 −$386 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $410 −$410 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2AM ET Jun 29 $412 −$245 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $308 +$77 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $103 −$53 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 29 $102 +$37 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 29 $51 −$25 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11PM ET Jun 29 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 29 $103 +$85 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 29 $351 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Nov 12 $280 −$280 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 6AM ET Nov 12 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Nov 12 $60 +$40 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 4AM ET Nov 12 $100 +$39 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 4AM ET Nov 12 $160 +$71 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Nov 12 $40 −$39 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Nov 12 $400 −$94 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Nov 12 $300 +$73 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Nov 12 $342 +$88 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 3AM ET Nov 12 $140 −$128 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 2AM ET Nov 12 $431 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Nov 12 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1AM ET Nov 12 $200 +$19 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 10AM ET Aug 06 $257 −$65 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 9AM ET Aug 06 $624 −$249 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 8AM ET Aug 06 $408 +$33 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 7AM ET Aug 06 $329 +$79 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 4AM ET Aug 06 $273 +$56 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 3AM ET Aug 06 $200 +$40 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $122 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.88 · official $198.88 (match) · 110 history records