Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:22:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F6 0xf63a…90e6 sports 212 markets active 1h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12,966 (-11%) realized −$12,737 · open −$229
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%93W / 119L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$582per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2,382est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,206
7 days−$1,206
14 days−$1,206
30 days−$1,206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$13,327
world 6% +$1,536
crypto 5% −$2,987
other 3% −$343
politics 0% −$253
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -40.2% -45.9% 33% 33% -60.7%
≤30d 3 -40.2% -45.9% 33% 33% -60.7%
≤90d 183 -19.7% -27.4% 41% 39% -24.2%
all 212 -13.8% -22.0% 44% 42% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 42% -20.9%
10% -29.5% 42% -28.5%
15% -36.3% 36% -35.4%
20% -42.6% 31% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$900) neutral
Persistence
early -11% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$399 vs −$443 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12,737
Unrealized−$229
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses93 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$2,382
Open positions1
Markets (closed)212 / 212
History coverage482d
Avg bet$582
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? No 59¢ $229 $0 −$229 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 29 $420 −$420 -100%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $1,282 −$1,051 -82%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $432 +$265 +61%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 26 $517 −$509 -98%
Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 5.5 May 13 $584 −$574 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Karen Khachanov May 13 $443 +$142 +32%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 13 $253 −$49 -20%
Spread: Sabres (-1.5) May 13 $468 −$461 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-12.5) May 12 $914 +$37 +4%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante May 11 $515 +$407 +79%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea May 09 $530 −$523 -99%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5 May 09 $299 +$232 +78%
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5 May 09 $533 −$234 -44%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Mariano Navone May 09 $507 −$500 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marin Cilic vs Martin Landaluce May 09 $1,019 −$997 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Antonia Ruzic vs Kamilla Rakhimova May 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sofia Kenin vs Bianca Andreescu May 05 $3 +$2 +57%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 May 05 $318 −$315 -99%
Flyers vs. Hurricanes May 05 $202 +$120 +59%
Flyers vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 May 05 $1,135 −$789 -70%
Flyers vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 May 05 $6 +$5 +77%
AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5 May 04 $879 −$865 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $1,549 +$314 +20%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Beatrice Ricci vs Tamara K May 04 $1,012 +$511 +50%
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5 May 04 $727 +$311 +43%
Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5 May 03 $1,018 −$1,001 -98%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 03 $51 −$50 -97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees May 02 $31 +$19 +62%
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk May 02 $242 −$238 -98%
Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5) May 02 $1,675 −$1,647 -98%
Ostrava: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Tom Gentzsch May 02 $768 +$913 +119%
Mauthausen: Lukas Neumayer vs Roman Safiullin May 02 $504 +$289 +57%
UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Pre May 02 $294 +$207 +70%
Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev May 01 $1,622 −$1,579 -97%
Saint-Malo: Yue Yuan vs Anna Blinkova May 01 $2,798 +$885 +32%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Arthur Fils May 01 $1,028 −$1,000 -97%
NL: Davos vs. Fribourg-Gotteron Apr 30 $71 −$70 -98%
Madrid Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Anastasia Potapova Apr 30 $919 −$900 -98%
Madrid Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Apr 30 $1,028 −$1,000 -97%
La Bisbal: Rebeka Masarova vs Elena Pridankina Apr 30 $1,009 +$1,439 +143%
Mauthausen: Sandro Kopp vs David Jorda Sanchis Apr 30 $459 −$450 -98%
Utah vs. Golden Knights Apr 30 $517 −$42 -8%
Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Apr 30 $78 +$33 +43%
Utah vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Apr 30 $910 +$544 +60%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 30 $1,812 −$65 -4%
Madrid Open: Arthur Fils vs Jiri Lehecka Apr 30 $823 −$823 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 Apr 29 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Rafael Jodar Apr 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Mauthausen: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Matthew William Donald Apr 29 $1,908 −$120 -6%
Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5 Apr 29 $1,010 −$1,010 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY No 59¢ $232 51m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $230 56m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $1,282 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $697 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $432 2h
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff BUY Alexander Bublik 48¢ $517 34d
Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 40¢ $584 47d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Karen Khachanov SELL Casper Ruud 88¢ $585 47d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Karen Khachanov BUY Casper Ruud 66¢ $443 47d
Ducks vs. Golden Knights SELL Ducks 41¢ $204 47d
Ducks vs. Golden Knights BUY Ducks 49¢ $253 47d
Spread: Sabres (-1.5) BUY Sabres 47¢ $468 47d
Spread: Thunder (-12.5) SELL Lakers 53¢ $924 48d
Spread: Thunder (-12.5) SELL Lakers 55¢ $27 48d
Spread: Thunder (-12.5) BUY Lakers 49¢ $914 48d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante SELL Thiago Agustin Tirante 61¢ $922 49d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante BUY Thiago Agustin Tirante 33¢ $515 49d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea BUY Aryna Sabalenka 57¢ $530 51d
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $531 51d
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $299 51d
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 38¢ $299 51d
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $533 51d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Mariano Navone BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 51¢ $507 51d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marin Cilic vs Martin Landaluce BUY Marin Cilic 28¢ $1,019 51d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Antonia Ruzic vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 46¢ $10 55d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sofia Kenin vs Bianca Andreescu SELL Bianca Andreescu 100¢ $5 55d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sofia Kenin vs Bianca Andreescu BUY Bianca Andreescu 63¢ $3 55d
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 56¢ $117 55d
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 71¢ $202 55d
Flyers vs. Hurricanes SELL Hurricanes 100¢ $321 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.19 · official $0.19 (match) · 480 history records