Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:56:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F6 0xf63a…cd18 crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$193 (+11%) realized +$196 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate66%19W / 10L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 63% −$2
crypto 27% +$58
sports 7% +$78
finance 3% +$59
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 22 +18.3% +7.1% 64% 55% -7.7%
≤90d 28 +17.8% +6.6% 64% 54% -2.8%
all 29 +19.4% +8.0% 66% 55% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.0% 55% +0.8%
10% -2.3% 48% -8.8%
15% -11.7% 48% -17.6%
20% -20.4% 48% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$2 · ×5.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.14 per $1 lost it wins $11.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$196
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses19 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage94d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$3 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 27 $704 −$1 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 25 $359 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -97%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 15? May 30 $124 +$26 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 23? May 15 $126 +$14 +11%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 21? Apr 22 $32 +$58 +186%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 19? Apr 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Apr 19 $136 +$14 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4AM ET Apr 02 $11 +$9 +89%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on March 25? Mar 26 $122 +$78 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $178 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $178 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $178 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $178 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $168 27h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $169 27h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $178 27h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $178 27h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $179 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 100¢ $180 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $179 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 100¢ $180 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 14d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 99¢ $20 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.53 · official $0.53 (match) · 74 history records