Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:23:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F6 0xf63b…9724 crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%14W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$312per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$639now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% +$2
other 30% +$2
tech 19% +$1
economics 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 14 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 14 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$639
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses14 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage74d
Avg bet$312
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $639 $639 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $229 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 4? Jun 07 $256 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? Jun 07 $382 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 01 $120 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.50 in May? Jun 01 $135 $0 +0%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $330 in May? Jun 01 $153 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 30? Jun 01 $230 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte May 26 $311 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23? May 25 $326 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $233 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 18 $403 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of April? May 01 $63 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $150 end of April? May 01 $572 +$1 +0%
Will "Elizabeth Taylor" get less than 2m views in the first week? Apr 10 $635 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $638.59 · official $638.59 (match) · 29 history records