Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:44:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F6 0xf63d…700b other 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$124 (-0%) realized −$122 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate17%21W / 104L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$865per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$657now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$4
14 days−$8
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$58
other 40% +$175
sports 11% −$251
world 2% −$3
culture 2% −$2
tech 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 64 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 125 -3.9% -13.0% 17% 11% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 11% -9.6%
10% -21.4% 10% -18.3%
15% -29.0% 8% -26.2%
20% -35.9% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,143) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$10 · ×4.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$657
Realized−$122
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses21 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage133d
Avg bet$865
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $658 $657 −$2 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $471 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 27 $474 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 26 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 21 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $1,614 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $1,078 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,119 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,162 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,030 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $3,427 −$4 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $3,142 −$4 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,331 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,044 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,537 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 03 $473 +$2 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $2,238 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,853 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,441 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $2,129 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? May 19 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 09 $1,156 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,186 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $1,921 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $1,129 −$2 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,143 −$2 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,178 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $1,918 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,138 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $1,137 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $1,103 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $1,933 −$3 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,061 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $1,138 −$2 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $1,050 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $1,100 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,110 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $7,100 −$7 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,039 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,627 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $2,303 −$2 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $1,585 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $791 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $1,625 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $471 1h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $471 3h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $474 5h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $474 7h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $473 26h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $473 30h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $474 6d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $474 6d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $475 6d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $475 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $474 8d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $474 8d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $476 8d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $476 8d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $658 10d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $750 13d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $751 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,117 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,119 14d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,137 14d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,139 14d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,022 14d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,024 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,029 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,030 15d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $963 20d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $964 20d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,076 21d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,078 21d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $712 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $656.71 · official $656.71 (match) · 444 history records