Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:52:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F6 0xf644…06ae crypto 1714 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$377 (-3%) realized −$376 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate71%1249W / 505L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day48.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$614
7 days−$519
14 days−$583
30 days−$738
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$141
other 1% +$1
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 583 -5.8% -14.7% 71% 63% -17.0%
≤30d 990 -5.2% -14.3% 71% 63% -16.3%
≤90d 1754 -3.7% -12.9% 71% 63% -13.3%
all 1754 -3.7% -12.9% 71% 63% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 63% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 24% -21.6%
15% -28.8% 7% -29.1%
20% -35.8% 2% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$376
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses1249 / 505
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1754 / 1714
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day48.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1754 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $67 $66 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 119 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 3? Jun 16 $141 −$282 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -1752%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $6 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $8 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $8 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $14 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $3 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.15 · official $66.15 (match) · 3500 history records