Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:34:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
F6 0xf647…0ccb sports 184 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$2,053 (+7%) realized +$1,226 · open −$58
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate76%133W / 41L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day49.1pace
Fees−$229est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$530now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$534
7 days+$1,611
14 days+$1,226
30 days+$1,226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$1,373
other 19% −$205
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 150 +30.1% +17.7% 79% 23% -5.4%
≤30d 174 +35.5% +22.6% 76% 25% -6.9%
≤90d 174 +35.5% +22.6% 76% 25% -6.9%
all 174 +35.5% +22.6% 76% 25% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +22.6% 25% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here +10.9% 22% -15.8%
15% +0.2% 17% -24.0%
20% -9.6% 12% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +57% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$56 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$530
Realized+$1,226
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses133 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$229
Open positions9
Markets (closed)174 / 184
History coverage11d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day49.1
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 94¢ 96¢ $149 $153 +$4 (+2%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 91¢ 97¢ $114 $122 +$8 (+7%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Under 91¢ 95¢ $103 $108 +$5 (+4%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox No 41¢ $9 $61 +$52 (+583%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 26¢ 43¢ $22 $36 +$14 (+65%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Over 15¢ 24¢ $16 $26 +$10 (+63%)
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Tatjana Maria 50¢ 66¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+31%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Over 45¢ 42¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners Over 52¢ $155 $0 −$155 (-100%)
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? Yes 31¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Phoenix Mercury 25¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers Winnipeg Blue Bombers 91¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-4.5) vs XLG Gaming (+4.5) G2 Esports 53¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in Second Half No 78¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? No 72¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Fiji vs. Vanuatu: Both Teams to Score No 29¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 25¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Slovenia vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ $118 $0 −$118 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 72¢ $145 $0 −$145 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Under 27¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 8.5 Corners Over 26¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Norway vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Over 51¢ $107 $0 −$107 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 89¢ $89 $0 −$89 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: Team to Take First Corner Jun 14 $9 +$18 +194%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 14 $60 +$28 +47%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $58 +$1 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $181 +$3 +2%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $397 +$3 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $66 +$1 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Team to Take First Corner Jun 14 $46 +$4 +8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $6 +$3 +42%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Maximilian Beier: 3+ goals Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $54 +$1 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $462 +$4 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $495 +$5 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 8.5 Corners Jun 14 $57 −$56 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $323 +$14 +4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $496 +$4 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 14 $4 +$1 +40%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Second half draw? Jun 14 $30 +$6 +21%
Morocco to win the second half? Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $297 +$3 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Tahsin Mohammed: 5+ shots Jun 13 $57 +$5 +8%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $51 +$56 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $9 $0 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $200 +$2 +1%
Switzerland to win the second half? Jun 13 $35 +$67 +188%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $389 −$154 -40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $90 −$89 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-4.5) vs XLG Gaming (+4.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $0 $0 +5%
Antonio Sanabria: 5+ shots Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,883 +$17 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: Second half draw? Jun 13 $49 +$440 +900%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $40 +$1 +2%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $29 $0 +2%
United States to win the second half? Jun 13 $77 +$129 +167%
Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $785 +$5 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 13 $124 +$30 +24%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $157 +$3 +2%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 13 $14 −$14 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $58 +$1 +1%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Team to Take First Corner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $44 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 51¢ $112 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $58 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 8.5 Corners BUY Over $5 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 8.5 Corners BUY Over $1 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 8.5 Corners BUY Over 14¢ $3 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 8.5 Corners BUY Over 46¢ $47 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $6 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $50 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $396 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $10 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under $1 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $55 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under $1 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Team to Take First Corner BUY Netherlands 34¢ $9 4h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $14 4h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $17 4h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $27 4h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $13 4h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $10 4h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $18 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $66 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $83 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $273 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $124 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $35 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $348 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $112 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Team to Take First Corner BUY Germany 92¢ $46 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $530.48 · official $530.48 (match) · 726 history records