Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:51:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F6 0xf649…e594 sports 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$277 (-10%) realized −$278 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%36W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day33.6pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$140
7 days−$431
14 days−$431
30 days−$431
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$322
other 42% −$117
crypto 2% +$12
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -12.8% -21.1% 36% 32% -23.4%
≤30d 100 -12.8% -21.1% 36% 32% -23.4%
≤90d 100 -12.8% -21.1% 36% 32% -23.4%
all 100 -12.8% -21.1% 36% 32% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.1% 32% -23.4%
10% ← realistic here -28.7% 30% -30.8%
15% -35.6% 24% -37.5%
20% -41.9% 18% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$16 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$278
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses36 / 64
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions2
Markets (closed)100 / 102
History coverage7d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day33.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-2.5) France 56¢ 57¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Spread: France (-4.5) France 20¢ 21¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$4 -44%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 22 $22 −$21 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $56 +$11 +19%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $15 −$5 -31%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -99%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $32 +$82 +256%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $5 +$33 +646%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $25 −$17 -68%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $22 −$17 -78%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $20 −$15 -74%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 21 $16 −$14 -88%
Spread: Japan (-4.5) Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$4 -82%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -90%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $17 +$1 +5%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $30 −$3 -11%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 +$19 +92%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $45 +$18 +40%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $39 +$26 +68%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $71 −$41 -58%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 −$17 -84%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $22 −$17 -75%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $60 −$17 -29%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $9 +$21 +223%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$17 +68%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 +$4 +42%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 20 $21 +$13 +62%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $29 −$18 -61%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$22 +55%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $21 +$21 +101%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$11 +44%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $44 −$7 -17%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $42 −$23 -55%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$6 -61%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $70 +$22 +31%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $43 −$7 -15%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $41 +$14 +35%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $57 −$23 -41%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $41 +$22 +54%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 +$14 +132%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-4.5) BUY France 20¢ $16 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 26¢ $22 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 83¢ $66 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 29¢ $11 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 9h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $15 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $56 9h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 18h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 20h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $16 20h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 21h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 21h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 21h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 21h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 15¢ $8 22h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 44¢ $25 23h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 13¢ $5 23h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 23h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 31¢ $5 25h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 4¢ $5 25h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $7 26h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Spain 20¢ $5 26h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 3¢ $2 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.47 · official $42.47 (match) · 264 history records