Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:29:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F6 0xf64a…c64d crypto 323 markets active 1h ago coverage 331d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,036 (-2%) realized −$1,036 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate83%269W / 54L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$20
14 days+$20
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$1,081
other 9% +$91
weather 7% −$47
culture 2% +$3
politics 1% +$5
world 0% +$1
finance 0% −$9
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +18.6% +7.3% 80% 60% -0.2%
≤30d 5 +18.6% +7.3% 80% 60% -0.2%
≤90d 142 -1.4% -10.8% 85% 33% -7.9%
all 323 -1.9% -11.3% 83% 31% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 31% -11.7%
10% -19.7% 17% -20.2%
15% -27.5% 9% -27.9%
20% -34.6% 4% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$48 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

331d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$1,036
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses269 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)323 / 323
History coverage331d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 323 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET Jun 18 $22 +$23 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Mar 25 $20 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8AM ET Mar 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 25 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Mar 25 $20 +$8 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 25 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Mar 25 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Mar 25 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 24 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 24 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 24 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 24 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 24 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 24 $40 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 24 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 24 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 24 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 24 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 24 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 24 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 24 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 24 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 24 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 24 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 24 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 24 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 24 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 24 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 24 $130 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 24 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 24 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 24 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 24 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 24 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 24 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 24 $30 −$8 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 24 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 24 $20 +$2 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $22 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $100 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $100 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $20 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $20 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $20 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $20 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $30 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $40 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $20 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $20 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.32 · official $40.32 (match) · 819 history records