Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:03:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F6 0xf64b…e382 other 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$4,832 (+18%) realized +$5,125 · open −$293
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate65%28W / 15L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$542per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$1,861now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,982
7 days+$1,982
14 days+$1,982
30 days+$1,982
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$5,050
tech 10% +$242
economics 7% +$328
finance 3% −$195
world 3% −$433
sports 1% −$115
crypto 0% +$12
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +71.0% +54.7% 40% 40% +49.5%
≤30d 10 +71.0% +54.7% 40% 40% +49.5%
≤90d 14 +52.3% +37.8% 50% 43% +13.2%
all 43 +22.0% +10.4% 65% 47% +9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.4% 47% +9.7%
10% -0.2% 28% -0.8%
15% -9.8% 23% -10.3%
20% -18.7% 16% -19.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$910) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$243 vs −$108 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.2 per $1 lost it wins $4.2
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$1,861
Realized+$5,125
Unrealized−$293
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses28 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)43 / 49
History coverage270d
Avg bet$542
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Base FDV above $8B one day after launch? No 65¢ 78¢ $567 $681 +$113 (+20%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $510 $525 +$15 (+3%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $301 $310 +$9 (+3%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 33¢ 14¢ $730 $297 −$433 (-59%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $45 $48 +$2 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $1,340 +$910 +68%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $113 +$887 +785%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $667 +$333 +50%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $250 −$250 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $113 −$110 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $152 +$617 +407%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $115 −$115 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 23 $70 −$70 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $211 −$208 -99%
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Apr 26 $1,980 +$328 +17%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 31 $1,710 +$468 +27%
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 31 $1,450 −$425 -29%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 27 $1,625 +$111 +7%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 24 $3,058 +$980 +32%
Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 20 $150 +$390 +260%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Feb 24 $1,008 +$201 +20%
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 25 $221 +$82 +37%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jan 23 $297 −$11 -4%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? Jan 23 $81 +$82 +102%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of January? Jan 14 $580 +$455 +78%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jan 13 $532 +$14 +3%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? Jan 13 $75 −$59 -79%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 12? Jan 12 $112 −$76 -68%
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jan 06 $241 +$114 +47%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January? Jan 03 $156 +$3 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 30? Dec 31 $342 +$58 +17%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? Dec 30 $48 −$48 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Dec 30 $1,877 +$323 +17%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Dec 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Dec 30 $243 −$82 -34%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Dec 30 $1,816 +$224 +12%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 26 $910 +$83 +9%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Nov 19 $65 −$43 -66%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Nov 13 $100 +$52 +52%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 13 $2,072 +$46 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Oct 27 $188 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on October 26? Oct 25 $58 +$12 +21%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Oct 24 $29 +$1 +5%
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 22 $100 +$8 +8%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Oct 13 $24 +$5 +22%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 02 $21 +$3 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U BUY 54¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 9¢ $46 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 60¢ $271 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 62¢ $527 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 62¢ $7 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 62¢ $66 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 60¢ $4 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 60¢ $16 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 60¢ $33 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 60¢ $18 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 60¢ $62 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 60¢ $196 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 25¢ $34 3h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 25¢ $24 3h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 25¢ $7 3h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 25¢ $7 3h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 25¢ $32 3h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 25¢ $6 3h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 3h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 3h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 25¢ $27 3h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 25¢ $6 3h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 3h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 25¢ $50 3h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 25¢ $27 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,860.61 · official $1,960.61 · 463 history records