Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:43:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf64c…e897 crypto 373 markets active 1h ago coverage 396d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$450 (-5%) realized −$439 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%135W / 218L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$1,244
crypto 29% −$380
sports 28% +$875
politics 3% −$20
world 2% +$322
economics 2% −$46
finance 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +0.5% -9.1% 20% 13% -18.1%
≤30d 36 -32.8% -39.2% 14% 11% -47.1%
≤90d 130 -33.9% -40.2% 20% 18% -50.6%
all 353 -3.5% -12.7% 38% 34% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 34% -14.2%
10% -21.0% 33% -22.4%
15% -28.6% 31% -29.9%
20% -35.6% 27% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$20 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

396d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$439
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses135 / 218
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions13
Markets (closed)353 / 373
History coverage396d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 353 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-17%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Spain be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Mike Maignan win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+2%)
World Cup: Winless Team? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $13 −$2 -14%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $34 +$1 +3%
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -21%
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$29 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AN Jun 15 $5 +$8 +158%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 +$40 +786%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? May 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? May 28 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 28 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 28 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 28 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 1 - 0 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? May 28 $5 +$31 +596%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $41 +$46 +114%
Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5) May 27 $12 −$12 -97%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Crystal Palace FC leading at halftime? May 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 2 - 1 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? May 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 2 - 0 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? May 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 1 - 1 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 0 - 0 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? May 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $29 −$29 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 16 $8 −$6 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 16 $8 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 16 $2 $0 +4%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 16 $21 −$8 -37%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 09 $45 −$44 -98%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 2 Real Madrid CF? May 09 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 3 - 1 Real Madrid CF? May 09 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 3 - 2 Real Madrid CF? May 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 1 - 1 Real Madrid CF? May 09 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 1 - 0 Real Madrid CF? May 09 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 0 - 0 Real Madrid CF? May 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Portugal BUY 27¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $16 1h
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? SELL No 10¢ $4 1h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $13 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 17h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Saudi BUY 34¢ $8 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 20¢ $5 30h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 38¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden win on 2026- BUY 5¢ $2 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 18¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 3¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026 BUY 48¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4d
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? BUY No 12¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.76 · official $92.48 · 952 history records