Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:51:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf64e…0ca8 other 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 326d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate28%15W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$3
world 23% −$2
politics 14% $0
economics 12% $0
sports 6% $0
crypto 5% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 13 -0.5% -9.9% 38% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 -0.5% -9.9% 38% 0% -9.6%
all 53 -3.1% -12.3% 28% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 2% -9.6%
10% -20.7% 2% -18.3%
15% -28.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

326d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses15 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage326d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $37 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $37 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $34 +$1 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 04 $3 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $19 −$1 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $35 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $30 $0 +1%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Aug 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 12 $0 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Aug 12 $61 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 12 $62 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 August 4–10? Aug 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350–364 times August 8–August 15? Aug 11 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 11 $61 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 215–229 times August 8–August 15? Aug 10 $1 −$1 -83%
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? Aug 10 $56 +$1 +2%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 09 $7 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 07 $6 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 31 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 31 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Jul 30 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 30 $62 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 30 $69 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 30 $63 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 30 $64 $0 -0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 1% and 0%? Jul 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 29 $58 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $38 7m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $37 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $31 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $31 9h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $33 13h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $33 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $28 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $7 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $11 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $24 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $35 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 44h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $37 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $37 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $34 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $34 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $35 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $35 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $34 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $29 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $18 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $19 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 161 history records