Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:21:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F6 0xf64f…1f94 other 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$37 (-3%) realized −$32 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip
Net edge+44%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$245now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$72
sports 32% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+43.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +58.9% +43.8% 83% 67% +1.0%
≤30d 6 +58.9% +43.8% 83% 67% +1.0%
≤90d 6 +58.9% +43.8% 83% 67% +1.0%
all 6 +58.9% +43.8% 83% 67% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +43.8% 67% +1.0%
10% +30.0% 50% -8.6%
15% +17.5% 50% -17.5%
20% +6.0% 50% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +59% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$305 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$245
Realized−$32
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage6d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $250 $245 −$5 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $305 −$305 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $97 +$160 +165%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $271 +$31 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $128 +$146 +114%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $122 +$6 +5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $47 +$75 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $252 21m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $258 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 37¢ $97 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 44¢ $147 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 57¢ $158 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 92¢ $302 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 82¢ $271 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $128 5d
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery SELL Robin Montgomery 100¢ $128 5d
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery BUY Robin Montgomery 95¢ $122 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $47 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $245.07 · official $238.49 · 14 history records