Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:53:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F6
0xf651…86b1
crypto · 1326 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$441 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$434 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$63
Realized−$434
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses1001 / 314
Open positions17
Markets (closed)1315 / 1326
History coverage14d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day178.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 17 History 1315 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$289
14 days−$434
30 days−$434
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Yes 86¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 58¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 33¢ 26¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? No 90¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+66%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$3 -34%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 -5%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$5 +261%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$6 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$2 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $13 −$3 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$6 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$3 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $24 −$5 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $8 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $8 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 Jun 10 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 64% −$43
weather 35% −$382
other 1% −$14
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 19m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 21m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL Yes 35¢ $0 21m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL Yes 35¢ $0 24m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL Yes 35¢ $0 24m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 90¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? SELL Yes 58¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? SELL Yes 66¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? SELL Yes 66¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 243 -11.2% -19.7% 53% 39% -23.4%
≤30d 1315 -3.1% -12.3% 76% 28% -14.2%
≤90d 1315 -3.1% -12.3% 76% 28% -14.2%
all 1315 -3.1% -12.3% 76% 28% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover178.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 28% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 18% -22.5%
15% -28.4% 11% -29.9%
20% -35.4% 5% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.83 · official $62.83 (match) · 3500 history records