Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:06:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F6 0xf656…14e5 crypto 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+0%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%133W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$17
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 90% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 54 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 134 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 134 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×83.53 per $1 lost it wins $83.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses133 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)134 / 136
History coverage83d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $95 $95 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 19? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 18? Jun 16 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? Jun 16 $233 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 17? Jun 15 $116 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $52,000 and $54,000 on June 16? Jun 14 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 16? Jun 14 $116 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 14? Jun 13 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 12? Jun 11 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 11? Jun 10 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 10? Jun 09 $115 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 9? Jun 09 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 11? Jun 09 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 8? Jun 06 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 6? Jun 05 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 6? Jun 05 $59 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 5? Jun 04 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 5? Jun 03 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? Jun 03 $64 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 3? Jun 02 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on June 4? Jun 01 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on June 1? May 31 $91 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 30 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 30 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 30? May 29 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 28? May 27 $224 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 26? May 26 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 27? May 26 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 27? May 25 $112 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 on May 25? May 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 on May 25? May 25 $87 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 26? May 25 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 25? May 24 $111 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 May 18-24? May 24 $78 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 18-24? May 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 May 18-24? May 24 $78 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 18-24? May 23 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on May 24? May 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 23? May 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23? May 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 23? May 22 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 22? May 21 $111 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $95 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 6h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $117 33h
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $117 43h
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $117 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $18 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $98 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $117 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $90 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $27 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $116 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $16 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $99 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $2 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $116 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $116 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $116 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $116 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $52,000 and $54,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $41 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $52,000 and $54,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $75 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $52,000 and $54,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $116 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $116 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $116 4d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 8-14? SELL No 100¢ $116 4d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $116 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.67 · official $111.67 (match) · 386 history records