Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:26:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F6 0xf65a…fcf3 crypto 295 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$377 (-6%) realized −$377 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate70%206W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day33.4pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$133
7 days+$115
14 days−$130
30 days−$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$83
other 7% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 +20.9% +9.4% 71% 60% -6.9%
≤30d 293 +11.3% +0.7% 70% 51% -11.7%
≤90d 293 +11.3% +0.7% 70% 51% -11.7%
all 293 +11.3% +0.7% 70% 51% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.7% 51% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -8.9% 38% -20.2%
15% -17.7% 32% -27.9%
20% -25.8% 25% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$15 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$377
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses206 / 87
Open positions1
Markets (closed)293 / 295
History coverage19d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day33.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 293 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Down 63¢ 64¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $65 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $68 +$81 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $66 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $66 +$16 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $66 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $65 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $66 −$40 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $66 +$13 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $66 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $66 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $66 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$6 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $66 +$19 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $66 +$11 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $66 +$13 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $66 +$15 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$6 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $66 −$46 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $66 −$40 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $65 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $66 +$21 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $66 −$42 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $66 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $66 −$38 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $65 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $66 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $66 +$10 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $66 −$34 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $67 +$28 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 22 $66 +$15 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $66 +$6 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $60 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $62 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $61 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $61 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $61 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $24 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $61 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $2 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.11 · official $9.43 · 892 history records