Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:14:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf65d…b385 other 154 markets active 0h ago coverage 703d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$152 (-5%) realized −$129 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%2W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$191
7 days−$191
14 days−$191
30 days−$191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$113
tech 13% −$32
world 10% −$19
politics 10% −$33
culture 5% −$9
economics 4% −$7
finance 2% −$8
sports 1% −$3
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 118 -8.4% -17.1% 1% 0% -15.4%
≤30d 118 -8.4% -17.1% 1% 0% -15.4%
≤90d 118 -8.4% -17.1% 1% 0% -15.4%
all 132 -8.8% -17.5% 2% 0% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 0% -15.5%
10% -25.4% 0% -23.6%
15% -32.6% 0% -31.0%
20% -39.2% 0% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

703d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$129
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses2 / 130
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions22
Markets (closed)132 / 154
History coverage703d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-4%)
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 51¢ 38¢ $26 $19 −$7 (-26%)
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 27¢ 20¢ $14 $10 −$4 (-28%)
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-11%)
Will Republican House incumbents not win in more than fifteen nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? No 89¢ 92¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027? Yes 28¢ 21¢ $6 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? No 74¢ 76¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Hotstuff FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 29¢ 18¢ $4 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? No 69¢ 80¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? No 67¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? No 63¢ 65¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Blake Miguez be the Republican nominee for LA-05? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 40¢ 32¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-68%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week 1? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Will Delta Q2 passenger revenue per available seat mile be below 18 cents? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Algeria be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 47¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between seven and nine nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $4 $1 −$4 (-79%)
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? No 17¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Yes 7¢ 9¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+28%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez Alvarez 10¢ 11¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $46 −$1 -3%
Will GamerLegion make a roster change before August? Jun 28 $33 −$1 -4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 28 $28 −$4 -15%
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? Jun 28 $136 −$7 -5%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2 Jun 28 $27 $0 -1%
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 Jun 28 $23 $0 -1%
Will Austria be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 28 $15 $0 -1%
Will DR Congo be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 28 $1 $0 -13%
Will Egypt be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 28 $38 −$2 -6%
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $75 −$7 -9%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 28 $6 $0 -6%
Will England be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 28 $14 −$2 -17%
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? Jun 28 $15 −$3 -19%
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 28 $7 $0 -4%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 28 $74 −$5 -7%
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 28 $34 −$2 -5%
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $83 −$4 -4%
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between Jun 28 $73 −$2 -3%
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between Jun 28 $4 $0 -11%
Will Jules Koundé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $3 $0 -18%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 3 Jun 28 $92 −$5 -5%
Over $15M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? Jun 28 $19 −$1 -8%
Will 5+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA Jun 28 $1 $0 -13%
Will Ghana reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $4 $0 -1%
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m? Jun 28 $74 −$4 -5%
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 28 $45 −$3 -7%
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $37 −$3 -8%
Will DR Congo be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 27 $34 $0 -1%
Will Portugal finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 27 $4 $0 -6%
Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above $1.3B? Jun 27 $10 $0 -2%
Will Iran be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 27 $19 −$1 -6%
World Cup: Will the USA Play Iran? Jun 27 $1 $0 -17%
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $78 −$2 -3%
Will Julian Alvarez score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $35 −$3 -8%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a Jun 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR be the worst-placed African nation in the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 27 $21 $0 -1%
Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q2 MedTech revenue be above $9.2B? Jun 27 $4 $0 -8%
Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q2 MedTech revenue be above $8.9B? Jun 27 $27 −$1 -2%
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nomin Jun 27 $35 −$1 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 27 $1 $0 -14%
Will England be the highest-scoring team in Group L during the Group S Jun 27 $47 −$2 -5%
Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? Jun 27 $11 $0 -4%
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $5 $0 -3%
SlingshotDAO FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 27 $16 −$1 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? Jun 27 $45 −$3 -7%
Hotstuff FDV above $150M one day after launch? Jun 27 $8 $0 -4%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 27 $13 −$1 -6%
Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in Jun 27 $43 −$3 -6%
Will Brown-Forman be acquired before 2027? Jun 27 $10 $0 -4%
Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above $1.2B? Jun 27 $18 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $45 6m
Will Algeria reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $46 11m
Will GamerLegion make a roster change before August? SELL Yes 58¢ $12 12m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week SELL No 47¢ $9 13m
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 26 to July BUY Yes 27¢ $14 14m
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? SELL No 61¢ $120 15m
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? BUY No 63¢ $127 15m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2 SELL No 79¢ $19 15m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2 BUY No 79¢ $19 16m
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 SELL No 62¢ $4 17m
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 BUY No 62¢ $4 17m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 17m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY No 53¢ $10 18m
Will Austria be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 29¢ $14 19m
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 SELL Yes 37¢ $19 19m
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 BUY Yes 37¢ $19 19m
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? SELL No 63¢ $9 22m
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? BUY No 62¢ $9 22m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2 SELL No 80¢ $8 22m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2 BUY No 80¢ $8 23m
Will Austria be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 29¢ $15 23m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 25m
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez BUY Alvarez 10¢ $0 25m
Will DR Congo be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 9¢ $1 28m
Will DR Congo be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 10¢ $1 33m
Will Egypt be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL No 50¢ $10 42m
Will Egypt be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 50¢ $10 42m
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 53m
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 54m
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 54m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.57 · official $96.57 (match) · 506 history records