Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:36:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf660…6b31 world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+2%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate55%18W / 15L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$3
other 22% $0
crypto 8% +$1
sports 7% +$18
politics 4% $0
weather 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -4.6% -13.7% 0% 0% -13.7%
≤30d 14 -1.3% -10.7% 36% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 16 -1.1% -10.5% 31% 0% -10.1%
all 33 +4.4% -5.5% 55% 6% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 6% -7.7%
10% -14.6% 6% -16.6%
15% -22.8% 6% -24.6%
20% -30.4% 3% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.92 per $1 lost it wins $2.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses18 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage478d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 20 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 19 $5 $0 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $62 −$8 -13%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $4 $0 -7%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $1 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $75 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $45 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $37 +$3 +7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $40 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 22 $1 $0 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $111K and $113K on June 3? Jun 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 18 $2 $0 +4%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $2 $0 +2%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 01 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in his first 100 days? Mar 31 $37 $0 +0%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin March 25-31? Mar 31 $37 $0 +0%
Will Jay-Z settle with his accuser before April? Mar 30 $38 $0 -0%
2025 March hottest on record? Mar 30 $37 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $33 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $3 +$1 +46%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 56-57°F on March 26? Mar 28 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 25? Mar 26 $31 +$1 +4%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $2 $0 -0%
Idaho State vs. Idaho Mar 20 $17 +$17 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $37 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $37 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 26h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 26h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $34 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $34 36h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $0 37h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $4 37h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $6 37h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $5 37h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $24 40h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 83¢ $12 45h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 83¢ $27 45h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $3 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $34 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $37 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $10 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 3d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 2¢ $0 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 1¢ $1 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 1¢ $1 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $28 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $10 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records