Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:00:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf663…ea33 crypto 544 markets active 4d ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$110 (-3%) realized −$110 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate65%356W / 188L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$35
14 days−$93
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$33
weather 4% −$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -65.2% -68.5% 12% 12% -56.4%
≤30d 46 -69.9% -72.8% 11% 9% -65.0%
≤90d 49 -65.5% -68.8% 12% 10% -61.8%
all 544 -6.7% -15.6% 65% 3% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 3% -12.5%
10% -23.6% 2% -20.9%
15% -31.0% 1% -28.5%
20% -37.8% 1% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$110
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses356 / 188
Open positions0
Markets (closed)544 / 544
History coverage95d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 544 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? Jun 16 $6 −$3 -53%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Jun 16 $11 −$6 -54%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 14? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Jun 13 $6 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +25%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on June 10? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 10? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 11 $18 −$11 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $13 −$11 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 10? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 10? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 8? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 08 $2 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 08 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 23 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 26 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 16 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 44¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? SELL No 54¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 50¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 58¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? BUY No 60¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 51¢ $3 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 50¢ $3 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 49¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? SELL No 59¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 58¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? SELL No 56¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? SELL No 59¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? SELL No 50¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 57¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? BUY No 61¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 61¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 51¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 61¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 55¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 56¢ $3 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1655 history records