Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:04:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf667…323a crypto 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+14%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day84.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -10.8% -19.3% 60% 20% +2.7%
≤30d 5 -10.8% -19.3% 60% 20% +2.7%
≤90d 5 -10.8% -19.3% 60% 20% +2.7%
all 5 -10.8% -19.3% 60% 20% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.3% 20% +2.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.0% 20% -7.1%
15% -34.0% 20% -16.1%
20% -40.5% 20% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
16.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.9 per $1 lost it wins $2.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day84.0
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $27 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.94 · official $91.94 (match) · 85 history records