Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:34:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf66b…114d crypto 217 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$275 (+4%) realized +$277 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%75W / 140L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$277
7 days+$519
14 days+$519
30 days+$519
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$578
other 22% +$366
sports 8% +$460
politics 5% +$54
world 2% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +30.8% +18.3% 36% 36% +36.5%
≤30d 22 +30.8% +18.3% 36% 36% +36.5%
≤90d 51 -22.5% -29.9% 24% 22% +2.6%
all 215 -6.6% -15.5% 35% 32% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 32% -6.4%
10% -23.6% 29% -15.3%
15% -31.0% 27% -23.5%
20% -37.7% 25% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$19 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$277
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses75 / 140
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)215 / 217
History coverage105d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $53 −$11 -21%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 +$113 +276%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $58 −$57 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $153 +$222 +146%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $22 −$21 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 −$8 -13%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 +$146 +474%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 −$24 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $38 −$37 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$76 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$60 +291%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $98 +$244 +249%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $122 −$120 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $53 −$50 -94%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $106 +$121 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $2 +$2 +86%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 20 to March Mar 26 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 25 $9 −$4 -44%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March Mar 24 $6 +$10 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 23 $22 −$3 -15%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Mar 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 23 $15 −$4 -28%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 10 to Mar Mar 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Mar 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March Mar 23 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March Mar 23 $3 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 7h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $58 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $14 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $13 13h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $153 25h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $41 26h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $22 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 52¢ $52 26h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $33 28h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 30h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $60 30h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $38 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $342 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $98 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $122 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $27 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $27 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 32¢ $228 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $228 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.33 · official $98.33 (match) · 692 history records