Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:13:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf66b…b1d1 world 133 markets active 17h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,585 (-13%) realized −$3,732 · open −$3,853
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%58W / 67L
Whale WR35%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$455per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$3,063now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days−$3,456
14 days−$4,697
30 days−$6,703
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% −$6,095
other 11% −$1,667
sports 4% +$90
finance 2% +$30
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -14.6% -22.7% 50% 29% -31.6%
≤30d 41 -15.5% -23.6% 46% 29% -35.5%
≤90d 69 -14.1% -22.3% 39% 29% -35.2%
all 125 +15.2% +4.2% 46% 38% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.2% 38% -15.9%
10% -5.8% 29% -24.0%
15% -14.9% 24% -31.3%
20% -23.2% 19% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 35% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +42% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$197 vs −$231 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$3,063
Realized−$3,732
Unrealized−$3,853
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses58 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions8
Markets (closed)125 / 133
History coverage164d
Avg bet$455
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 27¢ 16¢ $2,371 $1,357 −$1,014 (-43%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Yes 66¢ 20¢ $2,043 $636 −$1,407 (-69%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 35¢ 10¢ $1,094 $300 −$794 (-73%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 24¢ 14¢ $485 $270 −$215 (-44%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 40¢ 16¢ $400 $163 −$237 (-59%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 No 40¢ 18¢ $324 $140 −$184 (-57%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $60 +$22 +36%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 −$4 -4%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $16 −$5 -32%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $100 +$18 +18%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$31 +31%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $50 +$4 +7%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $51 −$28 -55%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$4 +7%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $70 +$6 +8%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $50 +$12 +23%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $50 +$13 +26%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $50 +$5 +11%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $51 −$3 -6%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$25 -50%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $50 −$14 -27%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 +$6 +6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$22 +44%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $50 −$3 -5%
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Jun 15 $1,544 −$1,305 -84%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Jun 15 $2,662 −$2,213 -83%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $50 −$30 -60%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $27 −$22 -84%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$7 -35%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $80 −$51 -63%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $51 −$27 -52%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 +$13 +12%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 12 $8,453 +$124 +2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $37 −$4 -12%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $231 +$49 +21%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $45 −$4 -8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$22 +22%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $13 −$6 -46%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Jun 10 $1,448 −$1,339 -92%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $204 +$42 +20%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 29 $153 −$69 -45%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 27 $220 $0 +0%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 27 $318 +$118 +37%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 26 $1,940 −$161 -8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $3,334 −$852 -26%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? May 24 $1,143 −$1,044 -91%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 06 $745 −$161 -22%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 06 $3,333 −$2,902 -87%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? Apr 22 $200 −$100 -50%
Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30? Apr 22 $0 $0 +20%
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by April 30? Apr 17 $74 −$61 -83%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 16 $913 −$591 -65%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 14 $342 −$279 -82%
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 14 $468 −$118 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 17h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $83 23h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 73¢ $60 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 84¢ $37 42h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 85¢ $14 42h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 82¢ $50 42h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 79¢ $97 43h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $101 43h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 SELL Over 18¢ $11 45h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $119 45h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $132 45h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $0 45h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $16 45h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $54 45h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 83¢ $100 46h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $101 46h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $50 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 29¢ $23 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 70¢ $54 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $76 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $62 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $63 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $55 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $70 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 SELL Over 42¢ $48 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 26¢ $25 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $51 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 61¢ $37 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,062.64 · official $3,062.64 (match) · 1087 history records