Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:38:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf66c…58b9 world 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate23%5W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$293per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$667
7 days+$274
14 days+$172
30 days+$172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% +$527
other 5% −$319
finance 3% −$199
sports 3% −$52
politics 2% −$31
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +5.5% -4.5% 24% 18% -4.7%
≤30d 19 -0.6% -10.1% 21% 16% -6.6%
≤90d 22 -9.3% -18.0% 23% 14% -10.6%
all 22 -9.3% -18.0% 23% 14% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 14% -10.6%
10% -25.8% 14% -19.1%
15% -33.0% 14% -26.9%
20% -39.6% 14% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$214 vs −$68 · ×3.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses5 / 17
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage102d
Avg bet$293
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$45 +841%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $100 −$8 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $1,506 +$52 +4%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $164 −$159 -97%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 18 $1,066 +$753 +71%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $692 −$10 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $150 −$52 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $460 −$56 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $240 +$219 +91%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $1,159 −$261 -22%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $109 −$38 -35%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $112 −$110 -98%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $95 −$71 -75%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $104 −$31 -30%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $135 −$55 -40%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 09 $199 −$199 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $92 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $393 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $10 15h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $50 16h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $103 16h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 11¢ $652 24h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 13¢ $6 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $350 39h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 12¢ $20 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $5 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $5 47h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $1 47h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes $18 47h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 11¢ $450 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes $19 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes $106 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $98 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $50 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records