Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:04:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf66c…ed60 sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$25 (+2%) realized +$23 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$236
7 days−$236
14 days−$239
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$204
other 17% +$126
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -13.0% -21.3% 43% 43% -32.7%
≤30d 13 +5.3% -4.7% 54% 54% -15.5%
≤90d 13 +5.3% -4.7% 54% 54% -15.5%
all 13 +5.3% -4.7% 54% 54% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 54% -15.5%
10% -13.8% 54% -23.6%
15% -22.1% 54% -31.0%
20% -29.8% 46% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$80 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$202
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage18d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 57¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 57¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $253 −$92 -36%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $140 +$94 +67%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $101 −$101 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $126 −$126 -100%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $152 −$152 -100%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $61 +$33 +55%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $87 +$108 +124%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$6 -57%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$3 -31%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +61%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $99 +$70 +70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $80 +$35 +43%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $75 +$55 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 11¢ $18 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $101 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 65¢ $47 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $50 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $96 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $102 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $101 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $140 29h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $87 46h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $61 46h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $51 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $101 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 9d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 9d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes 22¢ $17 9d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 9d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 9d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 9d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Spread: Czech BUY 29¢ $40 11d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 16d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $169 16d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $99 17d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $126 17d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 17d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $80 18d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $75 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.75 · official $201.75 (match) · 34 history records