Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:58:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F6 0xf66f…352c other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,445 (+15%) realized +$1,447 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate69%27W / 12L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$144
14 days−$144
30 days+$1,249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$1,657
tech 16% −$1,442
finance 15% +$1,021
crypto 13% +$11
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +7.0% -3.2% 74% 61% -13.6%
≤30d 39 +4.6% -5.4% 69% 59% +2.2%
≤90d 39 +4.6% -5.4% 69% 59% +2.2%
all 39 +4.6% -5.4% 69% 59% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 59% +2.2%
10% -14.4% 46% -7.6%
15% -22.7% 38% -16.5%
20% -30.3% 31% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$140 vs −$211 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,447
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses27 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 45
History coverage23d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? Yes 27¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $39 −$37 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7AM ET Jun 21 $213 −$198 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $151 −$147 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $172 +$23 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET Jun 21 $105 +$72 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $143 +$44 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $45 +$47 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $59 +$57 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $33 +$26 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET Jun 21 $19 +$23 +124%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $110 +$3 +2%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $100 +$18 +18%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $231 +$35 +15%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $80 +$19 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET Jun 20 $37 +$4 +12%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $146 +$72 +49%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $108 −$54 -50%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $62 −$61 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$46 +46%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $77 +$28 +36%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $52 +$48 +92%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $205 −$202 -98%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $121 −$119 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $44 +$12 +28%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $300 +$17 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $169 +$11 +6%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $290 +$227 +78%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $1,081 +$778 +72%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $1,273 +$937 +74%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $1,588 +$1,130 +71%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $1,298 −$1,295 -100%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $833 −$269 -32%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June? May 29 $41 −$40 -98%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $78 −$76 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $28 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $195 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $177 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $172 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $32 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $121.05 · 194 history records