Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:40:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F6 0xf671…3d1f other 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$63 (+0%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate30%21W / 50L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$479per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 79% −$28
other 11% +$18
politics 8% −$7
sports 1% +$78
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +26.2% +14.2% 25% 25% -4.5%
≤30d 15 +12.9% +2.1% 27% 13% -7.7%
≤90d 55 +6.0% -4.1% 27% 20% -8.8%
all 71 +7.3% -2.9% 30% 20% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 20% -9.4%
10% -12.2% 20% -18.0%
15% -20.7% 18% -26.0%
20% -28.5% 11% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×3.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses21 / 50
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage599d
Avg bet$479
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 19 $26 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 +$13 +105%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $160 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $294 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $179 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 05 $61 $0 +0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $23 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $22 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $19 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $30 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 22 $12 +$11 +90%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $156 $0 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $16 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets May 18 $8 +$5 +67%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $134 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $130 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $137 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 03 $126 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $130 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $264 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $133 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 01 $138 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 30 $265 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 27 $126 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $130 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $268 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $130 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $141 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $138 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $140 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $131 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $267 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $134 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 15 $141 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $130 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $132 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $139 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 11 $43 +$1 +3%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $6 +$5 +72%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $7 +$5 +72%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $9 +$5 +50%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $5 +$6 +104%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $12 +$4 +29%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Georgia Bulldogs Apr 02 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $26 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $12 28h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $99 2d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 4d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 4d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 5d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 5d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 11d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 12d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 12d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 13d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $34 13d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $34 14d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 21d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 21d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $22 22d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $22 22d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $42 23d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 24d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $19 24d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 27d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 27d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $17 28d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $17 28d
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals BUY New York Mets 52¢ $12 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $61 29d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 29d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 29d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $16 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.41 · official $99.41 (match) · 293 history records