Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:36:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf672…c3c4 sports 1315 markets active 2h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,869 (-7%) realized −$1,757 · open −$112
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%539W / 743L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$961now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$103
7 days+$269
14 days+$301
30 days−$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$773
other 39% −$731
crypto 7% −$361
weather 1% −$43
world 1% +$51
politics 1% −$58
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +13.1% +2.3% 47% 47% +2.8%
≤30d 192 -7.2% -16.0% 43% 42% -13.0%
≤90d 817 -68.1% -71.1% 15% 15% -70.1%
all 1282 -6.1% -15.1% 42% 42% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 42% -15.8%
10% -23.2% 41% -23.9%
15% -30.6% 41% -31.2%
20% -37.4% 39% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -67% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$18 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$961
Realized−$1,757
Unrealized−$112
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses539 / 743
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions31
Markets (closed)1282 / 1315
History coverage273d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 1282 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $118 $116 −$2 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $63 $62 −$2 (-2%)
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $57 $50 −$7 (-12%)
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Leandro Trossard score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 62¢ $52 $49 −$3 (-6%)
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $55 $43 −$12 (-22%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 46¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 Over 33¢ 33¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Under 52¢ 50¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+14%)
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $22 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Belgium 21¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 34¢ 26¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-24%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 41¢ 42¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 36¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-28%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+16%)
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 25¢ $6 $11 +$5 (+92%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 17¢ 8¢ $25 $11 −$14 (-56%)
Will Scott McTominay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 26¢ $26 $11 −$15 (-58%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 161 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $84 +$36 +44%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $26 +$24 +90%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $42 +$58 +140%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $21 +$79 +365%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $27 −$27 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $74 +$36 +49%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $23 +$17 +73%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $32 −$32 -99%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $34 −$34 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $63 +$28 +44%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 +$37 +180%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $17 +$33 +197%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $51 −$32 -63%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $23 −$4 -17%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $20 +$18 +86%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $25 +$20 +79%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $41 +$38 +93%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Raphinha: 1+ assists Jun 20 $22 −$22 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $41 +$16 +38%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $29 −$28 -99%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $30 +$17 +57%
Lee Kangin: 1+ goals Jun 19 $9 −$9 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$21 +105%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$21 +101%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Luis Díaz: 1+ assists Jun 18 $20 +$56 +276%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $25 +$36 +140%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$37 +180%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 −$7 -28%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 +$19 +93%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$28 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 40¢ $21 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $35 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $30 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $31 2h
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 21¢ $20 3h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 41¢ $41 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $81 3h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $27 4h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 52¢ $26 6h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 21¢ $21 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $84 6h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $42 6h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 64¢ $32 10h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $14 12h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $13 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 12h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 39¢ $31 13h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $23 13h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 23¢ $12 13h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 13h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $119 13h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $19 13h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $0 14h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $19 14h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $17 15h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $960.59 · official $960.60 (match) · 2635 history records