Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:27:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F6 0xf675…5e6a crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 306d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$73 (+24%) realized +$20 · open +$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%13W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$90
other 9% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 38 +2.2% -7.6% 34% 34% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 34% +1.5%
10% -16.4% 32% -8.2%
15% -24.5% 32% -17.1%
20% -31.9% 32% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$6 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

306d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses13 / 25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage306d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 22¢ 94¢ $18 $76 +$58 (+330%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 55¢ 46¢ $28 $23 −$5 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on October 15? Oct 15 $22 +$33 +149%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $120,000 and $122,000 on October Oct 07 $11 +$27 +257%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $122,000 on October 7? Oct 05 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118,000 and $120,000 on October Oct 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on October 4? Oct 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on October Oct 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on October Oct 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October Oct 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,100 and $4,200 on September 3 Sep 30 $5 +$7 +129%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,000 and $4,100 on September 2 Sep 29 $4 +$14 +346%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4,100 on September 25? Sep 25 $5 +$15 +270%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,100 and $4,200 on September 2 Sep 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,100 and $4,200 on September 2 Sep 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on September 24? Sep 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on September 2 Sep 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on Septembe Sep 18 $7 +$17 +245%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on September 18? Sep 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on September 18? Sep 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on Septembe Sep 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on Septembe Sep 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on September 15? Sep 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on September 15? Sep 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,600 on September 14? Sep 13 $16 +$26 +158%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on Septembe Sep 12 $6 +$15 +257%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,400 and $4,500 on September 1 Sep 11 $4 +$3 +81%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on September 1 Sep 11 $3 $0 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on September 12? Sep 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on Septembe Sep 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on September 10? Sep 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108K and $110K on September 10? Sep 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114K and $116K on September 10? Sep 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on September 5? Sep 05 $10 +$18 +177%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108K and $110K on September 5? Sep 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin above $110K on September 3? Sep 04 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin above $108K on September 3? Sep 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4200 and $4400 on August 29? Aug 29 $3 +$13 +426%
Ethereum above $4200 on August 29? Aug 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4400 and $4600 on August 29? Aug 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $28 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY No 22¢ $19 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on October 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 261d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on October 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 261d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on October 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $7 261d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on October 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 261d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on October 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 261d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on October 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 261d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $120,000 and $122,000 on October SELL Yes 100¢ $38 265d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $122,000 on October 7? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 266d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $120,000 and $122,000 on October BUY Yes 28¢ $11 267d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118,000 and $120,000 on October BUY Yes 18¢ $10 267d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $122,000 on October 7? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 267d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on October 4? BUY No 37¢ $11 269d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on October BUY Yes 29¢ $6 271d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on October BUY Yes 8¢ $2 271d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October BUY Yes 29¢ $9 271d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,100 and $4,200 on September 3 SELL Yes 78¢ $12 272d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,100 and $4,200 on September 3 BUY Yes 34¢ $5 272d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,000 and $4,100 on September 2 BUY Yes 22¢ $2 277d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,000 and $4,100 on September 2 BUY Yes 22¢ $2 277d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,100 and $4,200 on September 2 BUY Yes 17¢ $4 277d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,100 and $4,200 on September 2 BUY Yes 27¢ $5 277d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4,100 on September 25? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 278d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on September 24? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 280d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on September 2 BUY Yes 16¢ $5 280d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on September 18? BUY No 17¢ $7 285d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on September 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 285d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on Septembe BUY Yes 23¢ $10 285d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on Septembe BUY Yes 29¢ $7 285d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.35 · official $97.35 (match) · 63 history records