Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:18:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F6 0xf678…b132 other 128 markets active 2d ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,140 (+1%) realized +$1,140 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate20%26W / 101L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$937per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$885now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$5
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$66
other 38% −$420
sports 11% +$740
world 3% +$852
culture 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% +$4
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 61 +1.4% -8.3% 7% 2% -8.9%
all 127 -0.0% -9.5% 20% 13% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 13% -8.7%
10% -18.2% 11% -17.4%
15% -26.1% 10% -25.4%
20% -33.3% 9% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,277) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$11 · ×7.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$885
Realized+$1,140
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses26 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage136d
Avg bet$937
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $884 $885 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 28 $495 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 28 $310 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 27 $831 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 21 $259 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $263 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $274 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $764 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,294 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $7,356 −$8 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,665 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,337 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2,299 −$3 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $3,295 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $1,483 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $2,699 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,620 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 03 $794 +$1 +0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $835 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $3,782 −$4 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $1,022 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,274 −$4 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $3,009 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,337 −$2 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,537 −$3 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 21 $800 +$717 +90%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? May 21 $209 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,725 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $1,271 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $2,378 −$3 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,270 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $1,277 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,270 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,244 −$2 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,204 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 05 $1,190 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $411 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $761 +$4 +0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 30 $357 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 29 $395 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $2,339 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,239 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,249 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 19 $2,078 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $4,367 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,841 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $1,083 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,250 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $494 38h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $495 40h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $310 42h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $310 44h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $557 2d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $558 2d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $830 2d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $831 2d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $259 8d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $259 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $263 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $263 8d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $273 10d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $274 10d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $763 10d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $764 10d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $884 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,508 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,510 15d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,669 15d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,672 15d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,662 16d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,665 16d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,650 16d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,653 16d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,671 16d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,673 16d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,658 22d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,660 22d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $910 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $884.62 · official $884.62 (match) · 432 history records