Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:43:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf678…a255 world 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$6,590 (-34%) realized −$7,642 · open +$111
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate27%14W / 38L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$353per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,671now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,851
7 days−$6,966
14 days−$7,542
30 days−$7,508
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$6,609
other 18% +$525
crypto 8% −$348
finance 6% −$635
sports 2% −$213
politics 2% −$55
economics 2% −$196
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-39.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -47.1% -52.1% 21% 11% -51.8%
≤30d 32 -38.2% -44.0% 25% 12% -49.1%
≤90d 52 -33.4% -39.7% 27% 19% -48.3%
all 52 -33.4% -39.7% 27% 19% -48.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.7% 19% -48.3%
10% -45.5% 13% -53.3%
15% -50.7% 10% -57.8%
20% -55.6% 6% -61.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -22% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$220 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$1,671
Realized−$7,642
Unrealized+$111
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses14 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)52 / 55
History coverage57d
Avg bet$353
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 22¢ 24¢ $1,363 $1,459 +$96 (+7%)
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 6,000 in 2026? Yes 11¢ 17¢ $98 $151 +$53 (+54%)
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $100 $61 −$39 (-39%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $319 $0 −$319 (-100%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
FDA approves a psychedelic for medical use in 2026? No 59¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? No 30¢ 0¢ $423 $0 −$423 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $3,413 +$53 +2%
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Jun 15 $96 −$43 -44%
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 4,000 in 2026? Jun 15 $34 −$14 -42%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 15 $163 −$57 -35%
Japan recession in 2026? Jun 15 $165 −$131 -79%
US recession by end of 2026? Jun 15 $148 −$62 -42%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $199 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $25 −$23 -90%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 15 $112 −$104 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 15 $302 −$281 -93%
China x Japan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $45 −$17 -37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2,601 −$1,848 -71%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $4,906 −$4,326 -88%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 11 $435 −$423 -97%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $257 +$39 +15%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 09 $181 −$131 -72%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 09 $159 −$69 -43%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $87 −$9 -11%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 09 $1,598 +$478 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 07 $1,183 −$27 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 07 $335 −$319 -95%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 05 $30 −$5 -16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 05 $31 −$24 -80%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $20 −$6 -31%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 05 $288 −$161 -56%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $87 −$5 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $29 −$29 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $56 +$1 +2%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $100 +$14 +14%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $33 −$1 -4%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $44 +$19 +44%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? May 12 $20 +$14 +70%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 11 $23 +$5 +20%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 11 $38 +$20 +52%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 09 $94 −$36 -38%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? May 06 $79 +$37 +46%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 06 $35 +$20 +56%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 06 $20 +$5 +26%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
FDA approves a psychedelic for medical use in 2026? May 02 $20 −$20 -98%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? May 02 $12 −$4 -36%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Apr 29 $12 −$2 -21%
Kash Patel out by June 30? Apr 29 $20 −$4 -22%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Apr 28 $20 −$2 -11%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $22 −$7 -31%
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? Apr 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 22¢ $1,395 48m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $1,401 49m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $1,422 58m
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $44 1h
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $37 1h
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 4,000 in 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $19 1h
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $106 1h
Japan recession in 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $35 1h
US recession by end of 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $85 1h
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $70 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? SELL No 6¢ $3 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 3¢ $21 1h
China x Japan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $28 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $416 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $551 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $2,289 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $2,231 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $502 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? BUY No 27¢ $296 3d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 25¢ $296 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? BUY No 39¢ $139 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $50 5d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $90 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $2,153 5d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 24¢ $77 5d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $2,076 5d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $1,180 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $394 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $342 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,670.99 · official $1,670.99 (match) · 280 history records