Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:28:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F6 0xf67b…b132 weather 42 markets active 3h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-2%) realized −$11 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate82%32W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$9
weather 35% $0
crypto 14% −$15
tech 3% $0
politics 3% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 18 +0.5% -9.1% 89% 11% -8.4%
≤90d 39 -8.4% -17.1% 82% 8% -12.5%
all 39 -8.4% -17.1% 82% 8% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 8% -12.5%
10% -25.1% 8% -20.9%
15% -32.3% 8% -28.5%
20% -38.9% 8% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$18 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses32 / 7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)39 / 42
History coverage56d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 48¢ 54¢ $48 $54 +$6 (+12%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $19 $24 +$5 (+25%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 24¢ 10¢ $24 $10 −$14 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 7? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 7? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 7? Jun 10 $15 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on May 31? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on May 31? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 31? Jun 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $16 −$15 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $27 −$23 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $28 +$36 +128%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $8 +$5 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 4AM ET May 24 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 22? May 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 on May 22? May 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 22 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 13? May 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 22 $44 +$66 +150%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4AM ET May 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on May 10? May 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of May 4 2026? May 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $355 Week of May 4 2026? May 10 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 7? May 10 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 07 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9PM ET May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, May 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on April 30? May 05 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 30 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9PM ET Apr 30 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $6 11d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 11d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $6 11d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $11 11d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or below on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $15 14d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 18d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $5 18d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $5 18d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $6 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 18d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $20 25d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $20 25d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $25 25d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes $0 29d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes $4 29d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $64 29d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $13 29d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 32d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes $5 32d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 32d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 32d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 32d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 34d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 34d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 4AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 34d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.05 · official $88.55 (match) · 86 history records