Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:19:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F6 0xf67c…44ad sports 227 markets active 1h ago coverage 187d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,335 (+14%) realized +$3,392 · open −$57
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate46%101W / 120L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$276est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,471now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days+$639
14 days+$740
30 days+$740
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$2,971
other 12% +$312
world 3% −$59
politics 0% −$12
crypto 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +18.8% +7.5% 56% 56% +17.7%
≤30d 11 +24.4% +12.5% 55% 55% +19.2%
≤90d 105 -17.3% -25.2% 40% 36% +5.4%
all 221 -4.9% -14.0% 46% 40% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 40% +3.7%
10% -22.2% 37% -6.2%
15% -29.7% 36% -15.2%
20% -36.6% 34% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$65 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

187d coverage
Net worth$1,471
Realized+$3,392
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses101 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$276
Open positions6
Markets (closed)221 / 227
History coverage187d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 221 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu Antonia Ruzic 35¢ 40¢ $598 $692 +$94 (+16%)
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka Elsa Jacquemot 17¢ 10¢ $500 $306 −$194 (-39%)
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card) Rafael Fiziev 49¢ 50¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Tom Aspinall be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 49¢ $120 $118 −$2 (-1%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 52¢ $60 $94 +$34 (+56%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 31¢ 36¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal Jun 27 $172 −$169 -98%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $102 +$168 +165%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 25 $117 +$132 +113%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Christopher O'Conn Jun 24 $174 −$174 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski Jun 24 $159 +$233 +147%
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Jurak/Ruzic vs Errani/Paolini Jun 23 $1,154 +$496 +43%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 22 $102 +$103 +101%
ITF Gyula: Mate Valkusz vs Pietro Fellin Jun 19 $101 −$6 -6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 +$107 +105%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Alexander Blockx May 26 $102 +$22 +22%
Roland Garros WTA: Tereza Valentova vs Magda Linette May 24 $49 −$48 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Damir Dzumhur May 24 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Arthur Fils May 24 $1,138 +$2,432 +214%
Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Gabriel Diallo May 24 $1,200 −$52 -4%
Roland Garros ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Thiago Agustin Tirante May 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $102 +$243 +238%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $100 −$1 -1%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Luka Pavlovic May 23 $72 −$70 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alexander Zverev May 23 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open? May 23 $61 −$61 -100%
AHL: Coachella Valley Firebirds vs. Henderson Silver Knights May 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Rome: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Guy Den Ouden May 23 $70 −$70 -100%
Hobart International, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Panna Udva May 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Wuxi: Mark Lajal vs Soon-Woo Kwon May 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Hong Kong Tennis Open, Qualification: Elias Ymer vs Laslo Djere May 23 $45 −$45 -100%
SA20: Sunrisers Eastern Cape vs Pretoria Capitals (Game 1) May 23 $50 −$50 -100%
AHL: Charlotte Checkers vs. Lehigh Valley Phantoms May 23 $70 −$70 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniil Medvedev May 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs Ivory (BO3) May 23 $80 −$80 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 23 $30 −$30 -100%
La Bisbal: Tamara Korpatsch vs Jil Teichmann May 23 $61 −$61 -100%
Savannah: Liam Draxl vs Pedro Boscardin Dias May 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Dota 2: Most Wanted vs Kalmychata (BO3) May 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs megoshort (BO3) May 23 $60 −$60 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Jacob Malkoun (Middleweight, M May 23 $41 −$41 -100%
BMW Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Alex Molcan May 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Elsa Jacquemot vs Marta Kostyuk May 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Corentin Moutet vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz May 23 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 23 $101 −$101 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Jaume Munar May 23 $101 −$101 -100%
Madrid Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Merida Aguilar May 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: Kalmychata vs Most Wanted (BO5) May 23 $80 −$80 -100%
Macarthur FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 3.5 May 23 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Pre May 23 $120 −$120 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card) May 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Madrid Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alex de Minaur May 23 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 23 $152 −$152 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Ugo Humbert May 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Antonia Ruzic 35¢ $1 46m
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Antonia Ruzic 35¢ $1 46m
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Antonia Ruzic 35¢ $6 47m
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Antonia Ruzic 35¢ $6 47m
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Antonia Ruzic 35¢ $595 47m
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Antonia Ruzic 35¢ $1 47m
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal BUY Felix Balshaw 39¢ $102 2h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal BUY Felix Balshaw 36¢ $70 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka BUY Elsa Jacquemot 17¢ $512 6h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 20h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 25h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 49¢ $203 25h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Toby Samuel 47¢ $78 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Toby Samuel 47¢ $4 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Toby Samuel 47¢ $34 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Toby Samuel 47¢ $2 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Christopher O'Conn BUY Christopher OConnell 58¢ $82 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Christopher O'Conn BUY Christopher OConnell 58¢ $1 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Christopher O'Conn BUY Christopher OConnell 58¢ $1 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Christopher O'Conn BUY Christopher OConnell 58¢ $21 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Christopher O'Conn BUY Christopher OConnell 58¢ $1 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Christopher O'Conn BUY Christopher OConnell 58¢ $49 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Christopher O'Conn BUY Christopher OConnell 58¢ $6 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Christopher O'Conn BUY Christopher OConnell 58¢ $4 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Christopher O'Conn BUY Christopher OConnell 58¢ $3 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Christopher O'Conn BUY Christopher OConnell 58¢ $4 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 18¢ $56 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 21¢ $102 4d
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Jurak/Ruzic vs Errani/Paolini BUY Jurak/Ruzic 35¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,470.89 · official $1,469.68 (match) · 478 history records